1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead tocatastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river floodingacross portions of Central America, along with landslides in areasof higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible acrossJamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over thenorthwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Although the details ofthe future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is anincreasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of theCayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 87.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Eta has not become any better organized during the past several hours, and a specific center is hard to locate. It is estimated that the center is near a growing area of deep convection located east of the Belize. While it is possible the system has degenerated into a broad low or trough, there isn't enough evidence to break continuity, so Eta remains a 30-kt tropical depression on this advisory. Scatterometer data will probably come in overnight to provide a better look at the low-level circulation.The initial motion is an uncertain 360/7 kt. Eta should move northeastward on Friday around a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, then turn northward on Sunday and west-northwestward early next week as the trough cuts off into a closed low. The details of this sinuous path, however, are pretty fuzzy and small differences in the tropical cyclone position could lead to large errors down the line. The most notable change tonight is that the GFS-based guidance (including HWRF and HMON) have generally shifted northward and faster. The new forecast is moved eastward near Cuba, and then northward near the Florida Keys in response to this guidance and the 18Z ECMWF. It should be stressed this is a fairly uncertain forecast due to the strong trough interaction.Eta should begin to strengthen on Friday due to the low-level circulation forecast to become better defined in a fairly conducive environment. While vertical wind shear could increase this weekend, it is expected that upper-level divergence and trough dynamics will overwhelm the negative factors and cause continued intensification until the system reaches Cuba. The new forecast is raised from the previous one, but still lies below the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA. There isn't a lot of agreement on the intensity after Cuba, however, and the forecast hinges on how tropical it will remain after the trough interaction. The new forecast flattens out the intensity near Florida as a compromise between the various solutions, but I don't have much confidence in the forecast at that range.