1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead tocatastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river floodingacross portions of Central America, along with landslides in areasof higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible acrossJamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over thenorthwestern Caribbean Sea later today. Although the details ofthe future track and intensity of Eta are still uncertain, there isan increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions ofthe Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys andthe northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will continue catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 87.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Although satellite images and surface observations suggest that thecirculation of Eta is elongated, deep convection has been increasingnear and over the center during the past several hours.Unfortunately, the ASCAT scatterometer missed the region where Etais located, so there has not been much additional data to analyzethe structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speedis held at 30 kt based on a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification fromTAFB. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled toinvestigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful inanalyzing the cyclone.

The depression is moving northward at 7 kt. Eta is forecast to turn northeastward later today, and accelerate slightly in that direction through Saturday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is expected to slide southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta to the west of the Cayman Islands on Saturday and then across Cuba Saturday night or Sunday. Around the time Eta is forecast to be near Cuba, the models show the storm slowing down and turning northwestward or westward as the trough cuts off, and Eta pivots around the north side of that cut off low. This change in the storm motion should bring Eta near or over the Florida Keys and south Florida late in the weekend and early next week. The details in the location and timing of where Eta and the mid- to upper-level low interact will be very important to the exact track of Eta for south Florida and the Florida Keys. The new track forecast is a touch to the north of the previous one when Eta is expected to be near Florida, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

The cyclone is currently over warm water, in a moist environment,and will be moving into a region of upper-level diffluence as ittracks across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditionsshould allow for thunderstorms to organize near the center and forthe cyclone to gradually intensify during the next couple of days.However, rapid intensification seems unlikely given the broadstructure of Eta. The models show an increase in shear and somedry air entraining into the circulation around the time it nearsCuba this weekend, which in combination with land interaction couldlimit additional strengthening by then. The intensity forecast forthe 72-120 hour period is more complicated as it will depend on thetrough interaction mentioned above. Most of the intensity modelsshow Eta holding steady in strength after its passage over Cuba,and the NHC forecast does the same.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during thenext few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area oftropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.