1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and southeast Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight.

1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portionsof the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is ineffect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash andurban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southernFlorida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekendand early next week. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of these areas and additional watches may be required overnight or on Saturday morning.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cayman Islands
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for some of these areas tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The threat of lifethreatening flooding will continue across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands Saturday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 85.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, be near central Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again tonight, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with multiple vorticity centers present. The central pressure is near 1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500 ft. There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of heavy rain and their reliability is suspect. Based on these data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. In addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance. The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been shifted southward.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone's life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies near the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. The HWRF and HMON models still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during thenext few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area oftropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba at this time. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that flew a tail-Doppler radar mission earlier this evening reported that Eta's circulation remained elongated, and that there had not been any significant increase in winds since this afternoon. There has been some increase in deep convection near and to the east of the estimated center, but there has been little overall change in organization. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

Eta is expected to strengthen over the next 24 to 48 hours while it moves over warm waters and within an area of strong upper-level divergence to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Eta's structure is likely to take on characteristics of a subtropical cyclone as it merges with the cutoff low late Sunday and Monday. As this occurs, Eta's wind field is expected to increase in size. By 72 hours and beyond, dry air entrainment is likely to cause some weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one.

Eta is moving toward northeastward at a faster forward speed of around 10 kt. An additional increase in forward speed should occur overnight as Eta moves northeastward around the southeastern portion of a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This feature should continue to steer Eta northeastward during the next 24 hours, but after that time the trough is forecast to cut-off, with Eta turning northward, and then northwestward around and into the mid- to upper-level closed low. The merged system is likely to move northwestward or northward later in the period. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more northward track on Sunday and Monday with some of them showing a track near or over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula in 48 to 60 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly northward during that time and lies between the TVCA multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Since Eta's wind field is forecast to expand when it moves north of Cuba, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to cover a large area to the north and northeast of the center regardless of the exact track of the center.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys. Additional watches for the Florida peninsula may be required overnight or on Saturday morning.