1. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead tocatastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river floodingacross portions of Central America, along with landslides in areasof higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible acrossJamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and theCayman Islands.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before itmoves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida thisweekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys shouldmonitor the progress of Eta through the week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the coast of Nicaragua has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
- The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Laguna de Perlas.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas through this morning.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm).

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should gradually decrease today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 85.0 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster westnorthwestward motion is expected through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through this morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next couple of days, and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).

Eta still has a well-organized cloud pattern while it moves overnorthern Nicaragua, but there has been a considerable decrease indeep convection as evidenced by the warming cloud tops. Assuming aninland weakening rate as given by the Decay-SHIPS model, the currentintensity is reduced to 60 kt. Continued weakening will occur overthe next 48 hours or so, and the system should degenerate intoremnant low tomorrow. In fact, the surface circulation could loseits identity in a day or two. However, the upper-level circulationis likely to remain intact, and a surface cyclone is predicted toregenerate once the system moves into the northwestern Caribbean Seaon Friday. Some strengthening is forecast thereafter, in line withthe intensity model consensus. However, the global models show thesystem interacting with a strong upper-level trough in 3-5 days, sothe cyclone may have some hybrid or subtropical characteristics bythat time.

Eta continues westward, or at about 270/7 kt. A mid-level ridge tothe north of the cyclone should steer it on a generallywest-northwestward track during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a500-mb trough/low dropping into the Gulf of Mexico is expected tocause the cyclone to move northeastward in 3-4 days. By the end ofthe forecast period, the system is expected to rotate cyclonicallyaround the eastern side of the low. The official track forecast isquite close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, predictionwhich is usually a good performer. There is still significantuncertainty as to the details of the track in the 3- to 5-day timeframe.

Of more immediate concern are the torrential rains that Eta willcontinue to produce over portions of Central America.