1. Through Sunday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before itmoves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida thisweekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys shouldmonitor the progress of Eta through the week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Nicaragua and Honduras have discontinued all of the coastal warnings for Nicaragua and Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Although the coastal warnings have been discontinued, the governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for a few more hours, and near the center of Eta for several more hours.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: An additional 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras..

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 30 inches (760 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

The Cayman Islands: An additional 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated storm totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica and Southern Haiti: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should gradually decrease today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westnorthwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through early this afternoon, and then move across Honduras later this afternoon through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next day or two, and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Eta is weakening as it moves across northern Nicaragua, Most of the inner core convection has weakened, and the strongest convection is now in bands well removed from the center. There are no wind observations available near the center of Eta at this time, so the initial intensity is reduced to a uncertain 45 kt.The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west-northwestward track during the next 36 h or so. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to turn northward and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone is likely to move northward on the eastern side of the trough. While the track guidance is in reasonable agreement with this scenario, there is some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and thus there is a fair amount of uncertainty about what parts of Cuba and Florida the center may pass near or over. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models.Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Nicaragua and Honduras, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development is expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is more subtropical or hybrid, as indicated by the GFS/HWRF, than a classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a gradual intensification in the expectation that the GFS scenario is more likely to verify, However, the intensity forecast lies a little below the intensity consensus.

Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America.