1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before itmoves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida thisweekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys shouldmonitor the progress of Eta through the week.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Although the coastal warnings have been discontinued, the governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected near the center of Eta for a few more hours.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Monday morning:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30 inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras.

Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15 to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should decrease this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westnorthwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected this evening through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected across Honduras later this afternoon through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next day or two, and Eta should become a tropical depression during the next few hours. Reintensification is possible once the center of Eta reached the Caribbean Sea.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

Eta continues to weaken as it moves from Nicaragua into Honduras. There is little convection left near the center, and the strongest convection remains in bands well removed from the center. As before, there are no wind observations available near the center of Eta at this time, so the initial intensity is reduced to a uncertain 35 kt.

The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west- northwestward track during the next 24 h or so. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to turn northward and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone is likely to move northward or northwestward on the eastern side of the trough as it cuts off into a closed low. The track guidance remains in reasonable agreement with this scenario, However, there remains some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and there has also been an eastward shift in the guidance envelope after 36 h. The new forecast track is shifted to the east of the previous track after 36 h, and at 72 and 96 h it lies a little to the west of the various consensus models,

Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Honduras, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development is expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is more subtropical or hybrid, as suggested by the UKMET, than a classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a gradual intensification that follows the general trend of the model guidance. However, the intensity forecast again lies a little below the intensity consensus.

Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America.