1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane earlynext week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Mondayand Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge,hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaraguaand Honduras where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas on Sunday.

2. Through Thursday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could lead to landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flooding is also possible near the southern coast of Hispaniola, depending upon the track of the storm.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

The Government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
- The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these countries later tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Eta is expected to cause 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local 15inch amounts, across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of Hispaniola. Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of rain, with local amounts to 25 inches are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and river flooding, and could lead to landslides in areas of higher terrain.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday night or Monday morning. A slower motion toward the westsouthwest and then southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the cyclone continues to become better organized, with a convective band wrapping about halfway around the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 35 kt, and the CIMSS satellite consensus is near 40 kt. Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Eta, the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season. This ties the record for storms set in the 2005 season and is the first time the name Eta has been used in the Atlantic basin.The initial motion is 275/13. A low- to mid-level ridge axis that extends from the subtropical Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the Bahamas is currently the main steering influence, and the model guidance is in good agreement that this feature should cause the storm to move westward for the next 24-36 h. Between 36-72 h, a building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn west-southwestward as it approaches the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Beyond that time, there remains significant spread in the models, with the GFS showing a slow motion toward the northwest near the coast of Honduras while the ECMWF/UKMET show a continued west-southwestward motion into the Pacific. Given the spread, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center slowly across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus, and the 72-120 h part remains low confidence.Eta is over warm water and is in environment of light vertical wind shear. These conditions are expected to continue until the system nears the coast of Central America on 60-72 h. Thus, steady to possibly rapid strengthening is expected, with the storm forecast to reach hurricane strength between 36-48 h. The intensity guidance has trended stronger since the last advisory, and this part of the new intensity forecast is now a little below the intensity consensus. After 72 h, the intensity forecast is tied to whether or not the cyclone's center moves inland over Central America, and the current forecast is based on the forecast track that takes the center well inland.