1. Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas later today.

2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Hispaniola, northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
- The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these countries later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by Monday night.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Eta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts of 15 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Hispaniola. Across northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua, rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with local maximum amounts of 30 inches are expected. This rainfall may lead to lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.

At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 75.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue today and tonight. A slower motion toward the westsouthwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Eta has not become appreciably better organized over the past few hours. A large convective band is evident well to the east and northeast of the estimated center, but this band does not have much curvature at this time. A small burst of deep convection is occurring near or over the center, which is likely the early stages of the development of a Central Dense Overcast. Currently, there is a significant amount of lightning in the outer band but little lightning near the center. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Eta will be moving over very warm waters of SSTs above 29 deg C and in an environment of fairly light vertical shear. Therefore, strengthening is likely. The official forecast, like the previous ones, calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane before approaching Central America. There is also a possibility of rapid strengthening, as suggested by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the latest corrected consensus prediction up to the expected landfall and follows the Decay-SHIPS guidance after that point.The center location is somewhat uncertain, and my best estimate of initial motion is about the same as before, or 275/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed significantly. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of Eta should cause a westward or west-southwestward motion for the next few days. This would take the cyclone inland over Central America in 72 hours or so. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the simple model consensus and a little north of the corrected consensus.