1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba, and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for a few more hours inportions of the Cayman Islands, and are expected tonight and Sundayin portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where TropicalStorm Warnings are in effect.

3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected Sunday night,with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys andportions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical StormWarning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere acrossportions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, therisk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta'scenter, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of thesouthern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, wherea Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watcharea should follow any advice given by local officials.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay, and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, incuding Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Golden Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida, and west of Chokoloskee, Florida to Bonita Beach, Florida, including Lake Okeechobee. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cayman Islands
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
- Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
- Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Bay
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
- Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
- Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line
- Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, lifethreatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Isolated minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...24 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...24 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...23 ft Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...12 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands for a few more hours, as well as in the warning areas in Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.7 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, and pass near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Sunday night, and Eta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Florida. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found thatEta had strengthened to 50 kt with a central pressure of 994 mb.Since that time, the storm organization is unchanged in satelliteimagery, while the central convection looks a little more ragged inradar data from Grand Cayman Island and Cuba. Eta is currentlybeing affected by 25-35 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear,and water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air approaching theinner core from the west.

The initial motion now 050/14. There is little change to theforecast philosophy through the first 96 h of the forecast. A mid-to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should steer Etanortheastward for the next 12 h or so, which would bring thecenter near or over the coast of central Cuba. Then from 12-96 h,the trough should cut off into a closed low near western Cuba, withEta turning northward and eventually westward near the Florida Keysand south Florida as it merges with the low. The track guidancehas shifted a little to the west over Cuba and a little to thesouth near Florida, possibly in response to data from the G-IV jetmission earlier today, and the new track forecast does likewise.The track guidance becomes quite divergent after 96 h, and the96-120 h motion is now slower than the previous forecast as aresult.

The intensity forecast is tricky. Strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough is allowing the cyclone to strengthen. However, at some time in the next 24-48 h the shear and dry air entrainment should prevent any further strengthening. The intensity guidance shows a little intensification during the next 24-36 h with the bulk of the guidance peaking near 60 kt. After that time, the dry air should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is increased a bit from the previous forecast to show a 60-kt intensity at 24 and 36 h. This requires issuing a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys and portions of south Florida.