1. Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor to isolated moderate river flooding in Central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight and Sunday in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where TropicalStorm Warnings are in effect.

3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin Sunday afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere acrossportions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, therisk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta'scenter, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, wherea Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watcharea should follow any advice given by local officials.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the East Coast of Florida from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia County line and for the West Coast of Florida from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the West Coast of Florida from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
- Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
- Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood including Florida Bay
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
- Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
- Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, lifethreatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...24 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...24 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...23 ft Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...12 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba overnight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and in the watch area in Florida by early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 79.9 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible after landfall in Cuba overnight, but Eta is forecast to restrengthen later on Sunday and could be near hurricane strength as it approaches and moves near or over Florida. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Eta has continued to strengthen. An abbreviated mission found that the pressure had dropped to 991 mb, with believable SFMR winds of 55 kt. Since the plane left, the cloud pattern has not become better organized, and perhaps some shear is affecting the cyclone. Thus, the initial wind speed is kept at 55 kt.

The storm continues to move to the northeast tonight. While the overall synoptic pattern remains the same, there has been a big change to note with the track forecast, with a notable south and west trend with almost all of the guidance on Sunday and beyond. It appears that the system becomes more involved with a closed low forming near western Cuba tomorrow, which causes a sharper and faster left turn near the Florida Straits or Keys. The new NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but is well north of the bulk of the guidance due to continuity concerns, and future southward and faster shifts are possible. I should mention that even if the forecast does shift farther south, tropical-storm-force winds will likely cover much of the southern and central Florida peninsula due to the expected growth of Eta. Beyond Florida, this one of those times where the track uncertainty is much larger than normal, so check back tomorrow for further updates as big long-range changes are possible.Eta is likely to maintain its intensity before landfall in Cuba, then weaken somewhat due to the rugged terrain there. The storm should re-intensify over the Florida Straits in moderate shear conditions but with favorable forcing from the upper-level low. No change has been made to the intensity forecast near Florida, and Eta is likely to be near or at hurricane-strength there. Over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some dry air entrainment could briefly cause some weakening, but the system is forecast to move very slowly over the warm waters. In fact, a large portion of the guidance actually show it re-gaining hurricane strength as it moves farther away from any cooler shelf waters near Florida and sits over the Loop Current. While it seems pre-mature to raise the forecast much due to the large track uncertainty, the forecast is bumped up on days 3-4, but is below the model consensus.