1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north intocentral Florida. This rain may result in significant,life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flashand urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamasand southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding incentral Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today inportions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical StormWarnings are in effect.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys by early Monday where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin in the Florida Keys by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are also expected and hurricane conditions are possible for portions of the southern Florida peninsula where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A dangerous storm surge is expected in portions of the Florida Keys where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning and Watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
- Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
- Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood including Florida Bay
- Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
- Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, lifethreatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...24 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...24 ft Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...12 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), data from satellites and Cuban radars indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 79.2 West. Eta is moving toward the northnorthwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward northwest is expected by this evening, followed by a westward motion by early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas this afternoon, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. During the past few hours, tropicalstormforce winds gusts have been occurring all along the southeast Florida coast. A gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) was measured by an elevated weather station on Ft. Lauderdale Beach, a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was observed at Palm Beach International Airport and at an elevated site at Fowey Rocks, while a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was measured at the Boca Raton Airport. North Perry Hollywood Airport also just reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

Eta remains a sheared tropical storm, although the low-level centerhas become embedded a little farther into the convective cloud mass.Cuban radar data from Camaguey indicate that Eta's center has movedback over water and is now located just offshore the east-centralcoast of Cuba. Radar imagery also indicates that a fairlyimpressive band of deep convection wraps more than half way aroundthe center, especially in the western semicircle. Cirrus outflowhas expanded in the southern semicircle, and indication that theshear may be decreasing somewhat. However, water vapor satelliteimagery still shows a fair amount of dry mid-/upper-level airimpinging on the cyclone from the southwest. The initial intensityof 55 kt is based on a report of 850-mb flight-level winds of 70 ktand reliable SFMR winds of 55-57 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/10 kt. Eta is interactingwith a sharp mid-/upper-level, negatively tilted trough thatextends east-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into thenorthwestern Caribbean Sea. The eastern end of the trough isforecast to develop into a cutoff low alter today, which will actto turn Eta northwestward by this afternoon, and westward latertonight. The complex interaction between these two features isforecast to continue through 72 hours, resulting in the developmentof weak steering currents and Eta slowing down and possiblystalling near or just west of the Florida Keys by day 3.Thereafter, the global and regional models show widely varyingsolutions ranging from a motion toward the south or southwest(UKMET) toward Yucatan, to slow northward (ECMWF) or northeastwardmotion (GFS/HWRF) over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The new NHCtrack forecast lies to the north, or to the right, of the 12Zinterpolated models and consensus models (due to the interpolaterpossibly having some problems handling the sharp westward turn thatEta is forecast to make), and lies close to the previous advisorytrack and a blend of the operational 00Z ECMWF, and 06Z GFS andUKMET model tracks.

Now that Eta's center is back over water, gradual re-strengtheningis expected to begin later this afternoon. The global models areforecasting to vertical wind shear to steadily decrease across thecenter for the next next 48 hours as Eta moves north of the cutofflow and into a col small region region between the low and anupper-level trough moving eastward across northern Florida. TheGFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that theshear will decrease to less than 10 kt by 36 hours, but the shearwill likely decrease sooner since SHIPS model uses winds that extendout 500 km (270 nmi) from the center, which are not alwaysrepresentative of the wind flow near the center. With favorablelow-shear conditions and sea-surface temperatures warmer than 28 degC, the only hindering factor appears to be proximity to drymid-level air, which could get entrained into the inner core andinhibit development of deep convection in that part of the cyclone.For now, the new NHC intensity forecast remains similar to theprevious advisory, which is above the model guidance up to 36 hoursand a little below the guidance thereafter, and shows Eta at 65 ktor Category 1 hurricane intensity in the 24-72 hour period. However,it is certainly possibly that if dry air does not penetrate intoEta's inner core later today, then the cyclone could become ahurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. For thisreason, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of theFlorida Keys.