1. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away from Eta's center across the southern and central portions of the Florida peninsula.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and will spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life- threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Significant flash and urban flooding are also possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in Cuba, and significant flash and urban flooding are possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away from Eta's center across the southern and central portions of the Florida peninsula.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

4. Eta is forecast to approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and could bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
- Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
- Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
- Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, lifethreatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...24 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...24 ft Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...23 ft Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...12 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the Florida Keys tonight with hurricane conditions expected in a portion of the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through Monday over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by National Weather Service Doppler radar near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 80.1 West. Eta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next few hours, followed by a turn toward the west later tonight. A slower westsouthwestward motion is forecast Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Sustained tropicalstormforce winds have been reported along much of the southeast Florida coast during the past few hours. A National Ocean Service station on Virginia Key recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (58 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at Morningside Park just north of downtown Miami recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h). An elevated site at Port Everglades reported a 50 mph (80 km/h) sustained wind and a 65 mph (105 km/h) gust within the past hour or so. Farther north, a WeatherFlow site near Juno Beach reported a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

Eta's appearance in radar and satellite imagery has changed little since the previous advisory and the last reconnaissance mission a few hours ago, with a ragged mid-level eye-like feature briefly wrapping up for less than an hour before quickly decaying. Average velocity values from the Miami, Florida, NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar have occasionally been as high as 60 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft ASL to the north and northeast of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta around 0000Z this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 325/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast reasoning from the last 36 hours. Eta is now moving northwestward around the northeastern side of an upper-level low that has formed over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. The combined easterly flow between the upper-low and a deep-layer ridge located near the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast is expected to force Eta westward overnight and then turn the cyclone slowly southwestward in the 24-48 hour period, with the cyclone possibly stalling just west of the lower Florida Keys when steering currents collapse around 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough is forecast to move from the U.S. west coast eastward over the central U.S. by 96 hours, and then over the eastern U.S. by 120 hours, which will erode the western portion of the ridge and act to gradually lift Eta northeastward toward northern Florida. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted slightly northward, possibly due to the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft synoptic track dropsonde observations from earlier this morning, and now shows the center of Eta making landfall in the middle or lower Florida Keys late tonight and early Monday. The new NHC official track forecast has been nudged northward close to the consensus models HCCA and TCVA. It should be noted that although the latest model guidance and track forecast shows landfall in the Florida Keys, the strongest winds are occurring, and are expected to occur, well to the north and east of the center.Satellite imagery indicates that a pronounced dry slot has wrapped into the eastern portion of Eta's circulation, with radar data suggesting that it has occasionally penetrated into the inner core region as well, eroding the thunderstorm activity in the southern portion of the aforementioned eye-like feature. However, with the vertical shear forecast to steadily decrease from the current 25 kt down to less than 10 kt by 24 hours while Eta is moving over 28.5 deg C SSTs, strengthening is expected late tonight during the convective maximum period and continuing into Monday, resulting in Eta intensifying into a hurricane during that time. Environmental conditions are expected to remain somewhat favorable for Eta to maintain hurricane status through 60 hours, followed by gradual weakening from 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear of 20-25 kt and entrainment of very dry mid-level air. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory, and remains above the model guidance through 36 hours and is a little below the guidance thereafter. Based on ASCAT data and surface observations, the wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast quadrants.

Although deep convection has waned near the center of Eta sincethis afternoon, radar imagery continues to show a ring oflow-topped convection around the center, with some deep convectionreturning over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Dopplerradar velocities of 64-68 kt around 5000 ft, and recent NOAAreconnaissance aircraft observations support maintaining the 55 ktinitial intensity. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure ofaround 993 mb.

Since Eta has a fairly large radius of maximum winds and a dry slotthat has wrapped into the inner core, it appears that any short-termstrengthening should be slow to occur. As a result, the new NHCintensity forecast calls for a little less strengthening until Etamoves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours.Regardless of whether Eta becomes a hurricane near the Florida Keys,there is little difference in impacts between a 55-to-60-kttropical storm and a 65-kt hurricane. After 24 hours, Eta isforecast to move over warmer sea surface temperatures in thesoutheastern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical shear is forecast todecrease. This is expected to allow for some strengthening and Etais forecast re-gain hurricane strengthen by Tuesday. Gradualweakening is predicted between 72-120 hours due to increasingsouthwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air. Theupdated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS/LGEM models duringthe first couple of days, and in good agreement with the HFIPcorrected consensus model thereafter.

Eta has turned northwestward this evening around the north side of a cut-off low located just south of western Cuba. The tropical cyclone should turn west-northwestward to westward overnight, and a southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday as Eta pivots around the upper-low. In 36-48 h, Eta is expected to slow down and possibly stall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as the steering currents weakening. In about 3 days, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. The models that maintain Eta has a deeper system show a faster northeastward motion late in the period, whereas models that weaken Eta slow its northward progression by day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the model consensus at 96 and 120 h, and is similar to the previous advisory.