1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north intocentral Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possibleacross inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash andurban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamasand the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minorriver flooding in central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of theFlorida Keys, and south and central Florida today.

3. Water levels will gradually recede along portions of thesouthern coast of the Florida peninsula and Keys. Residents inthese areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

4. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as atropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, andstorm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progressof Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay have been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for south Florida has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida west coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
- Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria Island
- Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay
- Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Lifethreatening flash flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge including Florida Keys... 23 ft Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach... 12 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the westnorthwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually pull away from the Florida Keys and south Florida today and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it hasmoved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast ofextreme southwestern Florida. The storm has generally changedlittle in strength overnight with maximum winds estimated to be near55 kt based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Doppler radar data. Bandsof heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continue over portionsof the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida.

Eta is now moving west-northward at 12 kt. The upper-level troughthat Eta is entangled with and a mid-level high pressure system offthe southeast U.S. coast should steer the storm westward towest-southwestward away from south Florida and the Keys throughtonight. The steering currents surrounding Eta are expected tocollapse on Tuesday, and most of the guidance responds by showingEta meandering over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the 24-48hour time period. After that time, the models diverge significantlywith the ECMWF showing a turn to the north or northeast in responseto an upper trough that is expected to move into the northwesternGulf of Mexico. However, the latest runs of GFS and UKMET modelsshow the trough lifting out and provided little steering for Eta,which causes a continued slow and erratic motion over the Gulf inthose models. The new track forecast shows a slower northward tonortheastward motion compared to the previous one from days 3-5 asa compromise of the latest models and continuity. Due to the poormodel agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at thelonger range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible ifthe models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions.

The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little duringthe next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it movesover the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remainsin light-to-moderate wind shear conditions. However, there will bea fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit theamount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending onexactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerlyshear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slowdecay. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previousone, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta willbe located later in the week.

Corrected a typo in the second paragraphTropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it hasmoved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast ofextreme southwestern Florida. The storm has generally changedlittle in strength overnight with maximum winds estimated to be near55 kt based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Doppler radar data. Bandsof heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continue over portionsof the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida.

Eta is now moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The upper-level trough that Eta is entangled with and a mid-level high pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast should steer the storm westward to west-southwestward away from south Florida and the Keys through tonight. The steering currents surrounding Eta are expected to collapse on Tuesday, and most of the guidance responds by showing Eta meandering over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the 24-48 hour time period. After that time, the models diverge significantly with the ECMWF showing a turn to the north or northeast in response to an upper trough that is expected to move into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest runs of GFS and UKMET models show the trough lifting out and provided little steering for Eta, which causes a continued slow and erratic motion over the Gulf in those models. The new track forecast shows a slower northward to northeastward motion compared to the previous one from days 3-5 as a compromise of the latest models and continuity. Due to the poor model agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at the longer range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible if the models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions.

The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little duringthe next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it movesover the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remainsin light-to-moderate wind shear conditions. However, there will bea fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit theamount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending onexactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerlyshear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slowdecay. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previousone, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta willbe located later in the week.