1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern and central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm)), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Lifethreatening flash flooding will be possible across saturated urban areas of southeast Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today over parts of south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by satellites and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 84.2 West. Eta is moving toward the southwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move away from the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Data from a recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight. Some slight strengthening is forecast on Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent reports from the aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).

Eta's overall appearance in satellite radar imagery has become quite fragmented, with inner-core convection having become vertically shallow and broken due to mid-level dry air entrainment. Some of the recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight-level data indicate that dry air has worked way down to the 850-mb level based dewpoint spreads of more than 8 deg C. In the northeastern quadrant, a large curved convective band persists that has produced widespread rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches along with strong gusty winds across portions of the southern Florida peninsula. However, even that band of thunderstorms has become less pronounced in both satellite radar imagery over the past few hours. Doppler velocities over land and over water have also come decreased significantly, and the latest reconnaissance flight-level (58 kt) and SFMR surface wind data (49 kt) supports lowering the intensity to 50 kt. The decrease in intensity is also supported by the gradual rise in the central pressure, which is now up to 994 mb.Eta has finally made the expected southwestward turn, and the initial motion is now 235/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and near the U.S. east coast is expected to keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36 hours, accompanied by a steady decrease in forward speed. Steering currents are forecast to collapse by 36-48 hours, causing Eta to possibly stall and/or make a small loop just northwest of western Cuba. By 60 hours and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough currently located over the Rocky Mountains is forecast to move eastward and gradually erode the portion of the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, allowing Eta slowly move northward to north-northeastward through 20 hours. However, there remains considerable divergence between the global models on days 4 and 5 with regards to how far north Eta will move, with the ECMWF showing a more northward progression while the GFS and UKMET models show the trough lifting out and not eroding the ridge as much. For now, the official forecast track remains a compromise of these two extremes, and shows a slow poleward progression on days 3-5, similar to the consensus models TCVA and NOAA-HCCA.

Eta could still re-strengthen some during the 24-48 hour period when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and the wind shear gradually decrease to less than 10 kt. However, occasional intrusions of very dry air will likely continue to plague the system, which would prevent any rapid intensification from occurring and could keep Eta from regaining hurricane status. By 48 hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air should cause a gradual weakening of the cyclone through end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.