1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as atropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, andstorm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitorthe progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm).

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been drifting southward this morning, but it is expected to become stationary again later today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

There hasn't been a lot of change to the cloud pattern of Eta overnight, with the center apparently located on the northwestern side of a small central dense overcast. Scatterometer data from earlier indicated 35-40 kt winds, and with the typical undersampling from that instrument, along with consensus 45-kt estimates from TAFB/SAB, so Eta's initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm this morning.Eta is forecast to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is expected through early Thursday, with the main restrictive factor being nearby dry air. After that time, increasing shear and drier mid-level air are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening is pretty uncertain, and a lot depends on how much Eta can re-intensify over the next couple of days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, which is quite close to the consensus guidance. The storm has basically become stationary overnight. Eta should drift to north today due to steering flow changes with a nearby upper-level low losing influence while ridging east of Florida builds southward. A slow northward track is then anticipated for a couple of days over the east-central Gulf of Mexico in this flow pattern. Beyond that time, model guidance is in rather poor agreement, ranging from a stronger system moving faster to the northeast due to broad troughing over the south-central United States, to a weaker tropical cyclone getting caught under a narrow ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and turning west-southwestward. Since the new forecast expects Eta to be weakening, the NHC forecast will be west of the consensus and west of the previous track. I have little confidence in the long-range track forecast due to its seeming dependence on the intensity, and the wide spread in the guidance.