1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba.

2. Eta could approach the northeastern or north-central U.S. Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm).

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Eta has been nearly stationary, and little motion is expected through this afternoon. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening and continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

A significant increase in deep convection has occurred since the previous advisory this morning, including a CDO-like feature with cloud tops of -85C to -87C very near the low-level center. However, recent passive microwave satellite images indicate that the center is displaced to the northwest of the coldest cloud tops due to modest northwesterly mid- and upper-level vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is based on an average of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB.Although the initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt, Eta has essentially been stationary for the past 9 hours or so. Radar data from Casablanca, Cuba, and satellite fixes suggest that Eta has been making a small cyclonic/counter-clockwise loop within the larger gyre in which the small center is embedded. Until the gyre breaks down or moves northward, there will be little poleward motion by Eta today. By tonight, however, the global and regional models are in good agreement on a broad mid-tropospheric trough moving eastward across the central and eastern United States, which is expected to erode a subtropical ridge to the north of the Eta, allowing both the larger gyre and Eta to move slowly northward. This steering pattern is expected to continue through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the model guidance diverges significantly between motions ranging from westward (GFS/GFS-ensemble) to northward (ECMWF) to northeastward (COAMPS-TC). The 96-120 hour motions are directly related to the strength of the cyclone, with a much weaker Eta forecast to move westward and a stronger hurricane solution moving northeastward. The latter scenario seems unlikely given that the vertical shear is forecast to increase from the northwest and west at more than 25 kt, which acts to weaken Eta and also impart a slight eastward tug on the system. As a result, the official forecast track calls for Eta to basically move slowly northward through the 120-h forecast period and gradually weaken into a shallow cyclone that drifts northward. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, NOAA-HCCA, and the Florida Superensemble (FSSE).

Eta is expected to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear environment and over warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C for the next couple of days. Although the surrounding environment is expected to be somewhat dry, the other two favorable environmental factors should allow for some strengthening into Thursday, Thereafter, increasing shear from the northwest and west, along with drier mid-level air and cooler SSTs are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening remains uncertain, and depends heavily on how much Eta re-intensifies over the next couple of days. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and is a little below the consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, all of which make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours.