1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed overnight.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and south Florida through tonight, and spread northward across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding is possible in south Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Dry Tortugas
- Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
- North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Gulf coast today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...24 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...12 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall overnight:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches.

Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday:

West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida through Friday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba overnight.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.4 West. Eta is moving toward the northnortheast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northnortheast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the westcentral coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today, and Eta could be near hurricane strength late this morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42026 from the University of South Florida located about 75 miles northeast of the center of Eta recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Eta has been maintaining a large cluster of deep convection over the northeastern portion of its circulation this evening. NWS Doppler radar data from Key West is showing a well-defined mid-level circulation in that area, but NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data so far still indicates that the low-level center is located near the southwestern portion of the convective mass. However, it is possible that the center will re-form closer to the mid-level center overnight. The plane has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt, and SFMR winds of 52 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt. Eta's initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/8 kt. There has once again been a significant eastward shift in the 18Z dynamical model guidance, with the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models all showing a faster north-northeastward motion toward the Florida west coast. As a result, the NHC forecast has again been shifted eastward and lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus through 36 h. After that time, the NHC track is slower and west of the bulk of the consensus aids as the ECMWF still shows Eta weakening and lingering near the Florida Big Bend. While the new track has been shifted significantly eastward after 36 h or so, some continuity with the previous forecast is maintained with a slower northward motion between the two model camps. While there is increasing confidence in the faster north-northeastward motion in the short-term, there is still considerable uncertainty by 48 hours and beyond, and further adjustments to the track forecast could be required overnight.

Some additional strengthening is likely overnight and Wednesday while Eta remains over warm water and within an area of low-to-moderate vertical wind shear. If the center re-forms closer to the deep convection, Eta could re-gain hurricane status within the next 12-24 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs are likely to result in some weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA model guidance. Given the eastward shift in the track and the expected faster motion of Eta, a Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are being issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida. Additional warnings could be required early Wednesday.