1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected this evening and tonight along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible tonight and early Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across west and central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in south Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding are expected across portions of west and north Florida through Thursday.

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portionsof the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River,including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this areashould follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected this evening and tonightalong portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach toSuwanee River, and are possible tonight and early Thursday fromSuwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along theFlorida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward acrosswest and central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash andurban flooding will be possible in south Florida through Thursday,especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, andisolated minor river flooding are expected across portions of westand north Florida through Thursday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch for portions of the west coast of Florida has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...35 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...24 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...24 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...12 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon and evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.6 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the northnortheast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the westcentral coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday. Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported this afternoon at Punta Gorda, Florida, while a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported St. Petersburg. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

Almost as quickly as Eta regained hurricane status, it then lost it shortly thereafter. Dry air entrainment eroded most of the significant convection around the center this afternoon until a slight resurgence recently developed. However, the overall convective pattern has changed little with the bulk of the convection located primarily northeast through southeast of the center. The last recon pass through Eta showed that the central pressure had increased to 990 mb. Recent Doppler velocities of around 70 kt between 5000-6000 ft east of the center supports surface winds of about 56-58 kt, so the 1800Z intensity of 60 kt will also be kept for the 21Z advisory intensity.The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/10 kt. Eta is expected to move between north and north-northeastward tonight as the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the east. The new NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Eta turning northeastward after 12 hours, with the cyclone making landfall along the western coast of the northern Florida peninsula in the region from Cedar Key to Crystal River. Eta is then expected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday morning or early afternoon. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with a frontal system off of the southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Eta will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next 12 hours, with SSTs decreasing to less than 25 deg C just before the cyclone makes landfall along the Florida coast. The cooler waters, in conjunction with continued dry air entrainment and increasing westerly vertical wind shear, should result in at least gradual weakening until landfall occurs, followed by more rapid weakening as Eta moves over the northern Florida peninsula. Although the official forecast calls for Eta to be a tropical storm as it nears the northeast coast of Florida, a Tropical Watch or Warning are not required at this time since any tropical-storm-force will likely be occurring over water and not inland or along the coast due to Eta's poor convective structure that is expected at that time. Eta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to even stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 72 hours due to frontal interaction.

Corrected to show dissipated at 72H.Almost as quickly as Eta regained hurricane status, it then lost itshortly thereafter. Dry air entrainment eroded most of thesignificant convection around the center this afternoon until aslight resurgence recently developed. However, the overallconvective pattern has changed little with the bulk of theconvection located primarily northeast through southeast of thecenter. The last recon pass through Eta showed that the centralpressure had increased to 990 mb. Recent Doppler velocities ofaround 70 kt between 5000-6000 ft east of the center supportssurface winds of about 56-58 kt, so the 1800Z intensity of 60 ktwill also be kept for the 21Z advisory intensity.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/10 kt. Eta isexpected to move between north and north-northeastward tonight asthe cyclone rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge tothe east. The new NHC model guidance remains in excellentagreement on Eta turning northeastward after 12 hours, with thecyclone making landfall along the western coast of the northernFlorida peninsula in the region from Cedar Key to Crystal River.Eta is then expected to accelerate northeastward across northernFlorida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over the westernAtlantic by late Thursday morning or early afternoon. By 72 hours,if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with a frontal system off ofthe southeastern United States. The new official track forecast issimilar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend ofthe consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Eta will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next12 hours, with SSTs decreasing to less than 25 deg C just before thecyclone makes landfall along the Florida coast. The cooler waters,in conjunction with continued dry air entrainment and increasingwesterly vertical wind shear, should result in at least gradualweakening until landfall occurs, followed by more rapid weakening asEta moves over the northern Florida peninsula. Although theofficial forecast calls for Eta to be a tropical storm as it nearsthe northeast coast of Florida, a Tropical Watch or Warning are notrequired at this time since any tropical-storm-force will likely beoccurring over water and not inland or along the coast due to Eta'spoor convective structure that is expected at that time. Eta isforecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to evenstronger wind shear, and dissipate by 72 hours due to frontalinteraction.