1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portionsof the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River,including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this areashould follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected tonight and earlyThursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beachto the Suwanee River, and are possible tonight on Thursday from theSuwannee River to the Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along theFlorida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward acrossWest and Central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash andurban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday,especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, andisolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of Westand North Florida through Thursday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Boca Grande to Suwannee River Florida
- Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...35 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...24 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...24 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...12 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast through Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the northnortheast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the westcentral coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday morning. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by more rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Albert Whitted Airport near St. Petersburg recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). A Weatherflow site in Tampa Bay recently measured sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

Deep convection intensified over the northern portion of thecirculation of Eta over the past few hours, however the overallcloud pattern has not become better organized this evening.Adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from an AirForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximumwinds are near 55 kt, with the central pressure holding aboutsteady for now. Since the storm will be moving over progressivelycooler waters, with strong west-southwesterly shear and someincursions of drier air, gradual weakening is likely up to landfalltomorrow morning. A more rapid weakening is likely after the centercrosses the coast tomorrow. The dynamical guidance does notindicate significant restrengthening after Eta emerges into theAtlantic within 24 hours, although some baroclinic forcing couldallow the system to maintain its intensity for awhile. Thecyclone is likely to be absorbed by a frontal zone in 60-72 hours ifnot sooner.

Center fixes indicate that the motion continues to be just a littleto the east of due north, or 010/10 kt. A slight turn toward theright is expected soon, and over the next couple of days Eta shouldmove north-northeastward to northeastward, ahead of a broadmid-level trough, until dissipation. The official track forecastfollows the general trajectory of the simple and correcteddynamical model consensus, but is somewhat slower than the consensusguidance in deference to the latest GFS prediction.