1. There remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge alongportions of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Middle of Longboat Key to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning areaalong portions of the Florida Gulf Coast during the next fewhours, and in the warning area on the east coast later today.

3. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of the middle of Longboat Key has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning between Bonita Beach and Middle of Longboat Key, Florida, including Charlotte Harbor, has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida
- Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay...24 ft Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...13 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo, FL...12 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast through this morning, and in the warning area along the east coast starting in the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida Gulf Coast today and are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 83.0 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Eta should make landfall soon, move across northeastern Florida today and emerge into the western Atlantic this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas before heading well east of the MidAtlantic coast by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to weaken after landfall but could reintensify as a nontropical cyclone on Thursday and Friday before becoming absorbed by a larger nontropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station near Cedar Key recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 50 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches) based on surface observations from Cedar Key.

Satellite images indicate that Eta has lost most of its central deep convection over the past several hours, with the radar center becoming poorly defined and decreasing winds aloft noted. The last Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found winds to support about 50 kt, and with the continued loss of organization, the current wind speed is lowered to 45 kt. The tropical cyclone should be making landfall in the Cedar Key area soon.

Eta is forecast to weaken over its short passage over the Florida peninsula later today, and over the western Atlantic tonight due to strong shear. There has been a change in some of the guidance showing the tropical cyclone re-gaining strength as a non-tropical low after 24 hours due to a more favorable positioning with the next mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes on Friday. The strongest solutions are seen in the UKMET and ECMWF models, which indicate even storm-force winds are possible in a few days. I'd rather wait one more cycle to see if this trend continues but, as a compromise, the new forecast shows some re-strengthening as an extratropical cyclone and reverses any former weakening trend.

The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast this morning. Eta should accelerate even more in that direction later today as it becomes steered by the faster middle-latitude flow. The new forecast shows a more rapid forward speed than the previous advisory, which is related to the ECMWF/UKMET model solutions of Eta showing some extratropical intensification and staying coherent, rather than shearing out as a weak low like the GFS. Eta should merge with a large non-tropical low in 2 to 3 days.