1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early Monday morning. Additional strengthening is forecast thereafter, and Eta is expected to be a major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 80.4 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slower motion toward the westsouthwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane within the next few hours. Additional strengthening is likely thereafter, and Eta is forecast to be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

Eta has continued to become better organized this evening, including the development of an impressive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops colder than -90C near the center, improved banding features in the northwestern semicircle, and the formation of a pinhole mid-level eye noted in 01/2322Z 91GHz SSMI/S microwave imagery. Water vapor imagery also indicates that the upper-level outflow pattern has continued to expand, with dual outflow channels having formed to the northeast and the southwest. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. However, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 60 kt based on the pinhole eye feature...and this intensity estimate is probably conservative. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta in a few hours.Eta has slowed down but is still moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An expansive subtropical ridge that extends from the southwestern Atlantic across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to keep Eta moving in a general westward direction through Monday morning. By Monday afternoon and evening, the portion of the ridge over the Gulf is forecast to build southward and eastward in the wake of an exiting mid-latitude trough currently moving across the eastern and southeastern United States. The increased ridging will act to force Eta west-southwestward and eventually southwestward over the next 36 hours, resulting in landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. After moving inland, steering currents are forecast to weaken significantly on days 3-5 as another trough digs southeastward out of the U.S. Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico, eroding the Gulf ridge and causing Eta to drift slowly westward across Central America. Compared to the preponderance of the the model guidance, the HWRF solution of Eta remaining just offshore over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is considered to be an outlier. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus models TVCA and GFEX, which are a little to the right of the corrected-consensus model, HCCA. Based on the new NHC track forecast, no changes are required to the existing tropical cyclone warnings and watches in effect.Eta has rapidly intensified 20 kt during the past 12 h. Given the much improved inner-core structure as noted in the SSMI/S imagery, combined with sea-surface temperatures in excess of 29 deg C, mid-level humidity values greater than 80 percent, and the already impressive outflow pattern, Eta should continue to rapidly strengthen until landfall occurs. The main question is: how much strengthening will take place? Some of the more reliable intensity guidance brings the cyclone up to 105-110 kt in 36 hours, with the HWRF model bringing Eta to near category-4 strength. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Eta as a major hurricane in 36 hours when it is expected to be located just inland over northeastern Nicaragua, but a stronger intensity is highly probable just before landfall occurs. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter while the cyclone moves over the rugged, mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras, with Eta possibly devolving into a large, quasi-stationary Central American Gyre (CAG).