Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory 2

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 39.5 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to eastnortheastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next few days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates.

The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.

Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates.

The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.

Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.