1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida
Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the
southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to
the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida coast has been extended
eastward to the Aucilla River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been changed to a Storm Surge Warning
from Indian Pass, Florida to Clearwater Beach, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Aucilla River Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Aucilla River to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.9 North, longitude 95.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
is expected tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward
speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday
night and then move over portions of the southeastern United States
on Saturday.

Recent satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds
are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is
expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later
tonight or on Friday, with slow strengthening then expected through
Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

The complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico described
in the previous advisory continues to evolve. Recent
scatterometer data shows that the tropical disturbance in the
southwestern Gulf has a circulation elongated north-northeast to
south-southwest, with winds of 30-35 kt occurring in the
southwestern quadrant. However, the system currently has neither
sufficient convection or a well-enough defined center to be
designated a tropical or subtropical cyclone. The disturbance
remains in close proximity to a mid- to upper-level low moving
across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico and a frontal system
over the northern and northwestern Gulf. One change from the
previous global model guidance is the the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off of their forecasts of a separate baroclinic low to the north of
the disturbance. Instead, the global models are in reasonable
agreement that the disturbance, along with whatever vorticity
centers form along the front, will be part of a large low pressure
area that will affect portions of the northern Gulf coast and the
southeastern United States.

The initial motion of the disturbance is now 020/8. There is little
change in the forecast track philosophy, the track guidance, or the
NHC forecast track. The system should soon turn northeastward in
the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track
model guidance agrees on a continued northeastward motion through at
least 72 h. The forecast track, which is in best agreement with the
HCCA corrected consensus model, brings the system across the
southeastern United States between 36-72 h, and then has it moving
into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence
caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear.
Based on this, the intensity forecast again calls for gradual
strengthening until landfall in agreement with the global model
forecasts. While it remains unlikely that the system will develop
into a classical tropical cyclone, the ECMWF and GFS models suggest
enough organized convection will develop before landfall to make the
system a tropical or subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the
cyclone is forecast to become fully extratropical and gradually
weaken.

Regardless of the exact evolution, portions of the northern coast of
the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy
rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are
expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern
United States Saturday and Sunday.