1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida
Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Aucilla River to Yankeetown has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 93.7 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday night and then move over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm on Friday,with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

The disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over much of
the central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The system is not yet a tropical or subtropical cyclone as it still lacks sufficient convective organization and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the disturbance late this afternoon found a broad circulation, but no evidence of a well-defined center. The global models indicate that the circulation will become better defined by early Friday, and that the low will deepen within an area of strong upper-level divergence to the east of an upper-level trough over southeastern Texas. As a result, strengthening is forecast while the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 to 36 hours. While the system is unlikely to develop into a classical tropical cyclone, it is expected to obtain enough organized convection to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone on Friday or Friday night before is reaches the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to become extra tropical and gradually weaken while it moves northeastward near the southeast U.S. coast. By day 5, the low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the western Atlantic.

The disturbance is moving northeastward at about 10 kt. The system should accelerate northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough on Friday, and the northeastward motion should then continue during the next few days. The low is forecast to slow down and turn east-northeastward after 72 hours when the mid level flow becomes more zonal. The new NHC track forecast uses a blend of the lastest global model fields and is very similar to the previous advisory.

Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.