1. Dangerous storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level is possible along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely along portions of the north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center, and begin well in advance of the arrival of the center.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to Clearwater, Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West.  The system is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico. The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the associated convection is getting better organized. However, a
strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present
over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the
front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low. On the other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become
the primary low pressure system. Either way, it is likely that a low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical
cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h. Based
on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge watches/warnings are being issued.

The system should track generally northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model guidance is in reasonably good agreement through 96 h. The forecast track lies a little to the south of the model consensus, as the UKMET has a somewhat more southerly track. The forecast track brings the system across the southeastern United States between 48-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong
vertical shear. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening along the lines of that in the global models. It is unlikely, though, that the system will develop into a classical tropical cyclone. The system is expected to be fully extratropical by 48 h, with gradual weakening expected after that time.

Regardless of the exact evolution of this weather system, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.