Two new tropical storms and a new tropical depression have formed in the past 24 hours, joining Major Hurricane Teddy in an already historic hurricane season.
Hurricane Teddy is the strongest of the current storms, a Category 4 hurricane, and is located over the open waters of the Central Atlantic. It is forecast to track northwestward this weekend before being deflected due north by a frontal system exiting the United States. Teddy is expected to near Bermuda early next week, and could deliver another round of heavy rain and storm surge to the island that was impacted by Category 1 Hurricane Paulette on September 14. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say that Teddy could still be a hurricane toward the middle of next week as it approaches Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Wilfred, the last storm name from the Latin alphabet, formed in the eastern Atlantic on Friday morning. Wilfred will likely not exhibit too much additional strengthening as moves westward over the weekend. By early next week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say that Wilfred will likely degenerate into a remnant low.
Tropical Storm Wilfred, the last storm name from the Latin alphabet, formed in the eastern Atlantic on Friday morning. Wilfred will likely not exhibit much additional strengthening as moves westward this the weekend. By early next week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say that Wilfred will likely degenerate into a remnant low.
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two has the nearest proximity to the United States: On Friday morning it was located over the western Gulf of Mexico, about 250 miles southeast of the Texas and Mexico border. This system has exhibited signs of organization, and forecasters expect it to strengthen into a tropical storm late Friday or early Saturday. Once this occurs, it will acquire a name Beta.
1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding alongthe northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of nextweek as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshoreof the coast through that time. For additional information, seeproducts from your local National Weather Service office.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds arepossible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, withtropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surgeand Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areasshould ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and followadvice given by local officials.
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Port Aransas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande and east of High Island to Morgan City LA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
- East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...24 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, TX...13 ft High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay...13 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast as early as late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast late Sunday.
RAINFALL: There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office.
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 92.3 West. Beta is moving toward the northnortheast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin late Saturday, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week.
Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Betathis evening found that the center has re-formed or been tuggednortheastward by bursts of strong convection. While flying throughthat convection, the plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 57kt at 10,000 feet before descending to 2500 feet. To the northwestof the center, the SFMR instrument on the plane measured a solidarea of 46-48 kt, and there have been multiple ship reports in theregion of 40-45 kt. Based on all these data, Beta's initialintensity is estimated to be 50 kt. The plane reported an extrapolated minimum pressure of 996 mb on the last pass through the center, which also corresponds to a typical 50-kt tropical storm.
The aircraft fixes indicate that Beta is moving north-northeastward,or 030/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12hours or so, but as mid-level ridging develops over the SouthernPlains on Saturday, Beta should begin to slow down and turnwestward. A slow motion in the direction of the Texas coast shouldcontinue through day 3, with a shortwave trough possibly causing thecyclone to recurve and move northeastward near or along the Texascoast on days 4 and 5. While there remains a large amount of spreadamong the track models, they all agree on this general scenario andindicate that Beta is likely to move very slowly as it makes itsclosest approach to the Texas coast. The initial position fixed bythe plane necessitated a northward shift in the NHC officialforecast compared to the previous forecast for the first 3 days, butit comes back in line with the previous prediction on days 4 and 5.
Beta has been able to strengthen despite being affected by strongsouthwesterly shear. The shear could begin to relax over the nextfew days, particularly by day 2 and 3, which could allow for somefurther strengthening. The SHIPS guidance remains the mostaggressive of the intensity models, and the NHC intensity forecastleans heavily toward those solutions given Beta's recentintensification trend (which SHIPS seemed to handle better). Betais forecast to steadily strengthen and become a hurricane in acouple of days as it approaches the Texas coast. Some weakening isforecast on days 4 and 5 due to another increase in southwesterlyshear and possible land interaction.
Subtropical Storm Alpha also formed on Friday and was located off the coast of Portugal during the early afternoon. This marks the first time since 2005, and only the second time in history, that the Greek alphabet has been employed to name storms. Alpha will likely be a short-lived system, but is expected to douse Portugal with heavy rain and create rough seas.
Regardless of when or if Tropical Depression Twenty-Two intensifies, the system is expected to remain over the western Gulf of Mexico through at least the middle of next week. After that, remnant moisture and energy from the system could track toward the Central or Eastern Gulf Coast, including Florida's Gulf Coast. Should this occur, rain chances will likely increase and dangerous surf could develop at the beaches. Interests in these areas should follow the forecast closely in the coming week.