Two new tropical storms and a new tropical depression have formed in the past 24 hours, joining Major Hurricane Teddy in an already historic hurricane season.
Hurricane Teddy is the strongest of the current storms, a Category 4 hurricane, and is located over the open waters of the Central Atlantic. It is forecast to track northwestward this weekend before being deflected due north by a frontal system exiting the United States. Teddy is expected to near Bermuda early next week, and could deliver another round of heavy rain and storm surge to the island that was impacted by Category 1 Hurricane Paulette on September 14. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say that Teddy could still be a hurricane toward the middle of next week as it approaches Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Wilfred, the last storm name from the Latin alphabet, formed in the eastern Atlantic on Friday morning. Wilfred will likely not exhibit too much additional strengthening as moves westward over the weekend. By early next week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say that Wilfred will likely degenerate into a remnant low.
Tropical Storm Wilfred, the last storm name from the Latin alphabet, formed in the eastern Atlantic on Friday morning. Wilfred will likely not exhibit much additional strengthening as moves westward this the weekend. By early next week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say that Wilfred will likely degenerate into a remnant low.
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two has the nearest proximity to the United States: On Friday morning it was located over the western Gulf of Mexico, about 250 miles southeast of the Texas and Mexico border. This system has exhibited signs of organization, and forecasters expect it to strengthen into a tropical storm late Friday or early Saturday. Once this occurs, it will acquire a name Beta.
1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times ofhigh tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisianacoasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in theseareas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texascoast through Tuesday.
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...24 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...13 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 13 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...12 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area through Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.
SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 96.3 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A slow north and northeast motion are expected on Tuesday, and a faster eastnortheastward motion should begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland overnight. Beta is forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday as Beta moves just inland along the Texas coast.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow observing site at Matagorda Bay, Texas, has reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) this evening.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
There has been a recent increase in convection along the Texascoast just to the north of Beta's center this evening. A blendof flight-level and SFMR winds from an Air Force Reservereconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beta's peak intensityremains around 40 kt. The aircraft has reported a minimum centralpressure of around 999 mb, which is unchanged from earlier today.West-southwesterly vertical wind shear and land interaction shouldgradually weaken the cyclone over the next couple of days. The NHCintensity forecast is a little above model guidance through 24hours since a significant portion of the circulation is forecastto remain over water. Strong vertical wind shear is expectedto prevent re-strengthening when Beta moves near or just offshore ofthe Upper Texas coast in a couple of days.
Beta is moving northwestward or 325/3 kt. The tropical stormshould move just inland along the central Texas coast overnight, butit is expected to become nearly stationary on Tuesday as steeringcurrents collapse. A weak trough over the south-central UnitedStates should begin to steer Beta east-northeastward Tuesday nightand Wednesday, and a northeastward motion at a slightly fasterforward speed should continue until dissipation in 72-96 hours.The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previousadvisory and is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.
Subtropical Storm Alpha also formed on Friday and was located off the coast of Portugal during the early afternoon. This marks the first time since 2005, and only the second time in history, that the Greek alphabet has been employed to name storms. Alpha will likely be a short-lived system, but is expected to douse Portugal with heavy rain and create rough seas.
Regardless of when or if Tropical Depression Twenty-Two intensifies, the system is expected to remain over the western Gulf of Mexico through at least the middle of next week. After that, remnant moisture and energy from the system could track toward the Central or Eastern Gulf Coast, including Florida's Gulf Coast. Should this occur, rain chances will likely increase and dangerous surf could develop at the beaches. Interests in these areas should follow the forecast closely in the coming week.