1. Marginal risk northeast FL Monday morning
  2. Slight risk FL panhandle Monday evening
  3. Enhanced risk north-central FL Tuesday

The same weather pattern has already produced multiple rounds of severe weather across the Mid-South this weekend. As of Sunday evening, 23 wind damage and 65 hail reports had come in.

An active two days is headed to #Florida. Dozens of severe weather reports this weekend across portions of #Texas and Mid-South. pic.twitter.com/rvU4oGxTee

— Jeff Huffman (@HuffmanHeadsUp) March 19, 2018

Showers and thunderstorms rumbled through the the Florida panhandle Sunday night, generally moving along a stationary front draped across the I-10 corridor. Most of the storms were not that strong, but a couple of cells west of Tallahassee did prompt warnings just after 4 am EDT.

This complex of storms is likely to move across much of north Florida during the early morning hours Monday, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail in some spots. A few of the storms could also prompt warnings for possible wind damage or even an isolated tornado.  The highest chances of this occurring are along the Nature Coast, where an inflow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will enhance the storm potential.

Clocks may have “sprung forward”, but thermometers in Florida sure haven't. In fact, it feels like they've fallen back to a time more like January. For the second week in a row, a late-season frost or freeze is possible in parts of Florida as a persistent northwest wind will send shivers down the spines of spring-breakers from Pensacola to Miami.

 

The third powerful Nor'Easter in two weeks is forecast to intensify rapidly off the coast of New England Tuesday. The counter-clockwise motion around this strong area of low pressure system will steer Canadian air once again deep into the Southeast. Some sections of northern Florida and across the panhandle are prone to a second bout with near or sub-freezing temperatures in as many weeks.

Here are the projected morning lows over the next four days.

 

And daytime highs won't be much warmer.

Content is current now, not necessarily at the time of the post.

Strong thunderstorms are expected in portions of North Florida Sunday Night and Monday.  The cold front responsible for the unsettled weather was approaching the panhandle Sunday afternoon.

Strong thunderstorms are approaching the #FLPanhandle this afternoon ahead of an approaching front. There is a low risk (yellow region on map) some of them could become severe and produce wind damage through this evening. #flwx pic.twitter.com/NnpTVbmAPM

— Florida Storms (@FloridaStorms) March 11, 2018

 

According to the National Weather Service, there is a low (or “marginal”) risk of severe weather for the Florida Panhandle and sections of the Nature Coast Sunday evening and overnight. The line of showers and thunderstorms will move through Pensacola by 5 p.m. and approach Tallahassee by 7 p.m.

After the line of showers and storms moves through the Panhandle, it will approach Gainesville and Jacksonville by 11 p.m. The activity will likely weaken some as it moves inland, but some brief downpours and gusty winds are still possible. The showers are likely to fall apart after moving south of Ocala by 4 am.

Content in this section is current now, not necessarily at the time of this post. 

The potential for strong or severe storms Monday includes most of central and south Florida, generally near and south of the I-4 corridor. Storms are likely to redevelop near the I-4 corridor by 9 am.  A widespread event is not anticipated, but a few of Monday's storms may grow strong enough to produce minor wind damage or an isolated tornado.

The thunderstorms are possible in Tampa, Orlando and Melbourne Monday morning and midday. As the front continues its dive south, West Palm Beach and Fort Myers will experience strong storms by 1 p.m. Fort Lauderdale and Miami's greatest chance for strong storms will be between 2 and 6 pm Monday. The wet weather should clear all of South Florida Monday evening.

Content in this section is current now, not necessarily at the time of this post. 
Content in this section is current now, not necessarily at the time of the post.
Content in this section is current now, not necessarily at the time of this post. 

A few of the thunderstorms with Tuesday's front might turn severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. An isolated water spout or tornado is also possible immediately near the coast.  Locations at greatest risk include coastal areas of the panhandle and west-central Florida, shaded in yellow on the map below.

Some areas, especially near Tallahassee, have been in a moderate drought since November.

Drought index as of March 1st, courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center.

The large area of rain and thunder will move from the panhandle into much of north-central Florida early Tuesday evening. It will then slide into much of central Florida (the I-4 corridor) closer to midnight, eventually sweeping across south Florida by Wednesday morning.

[reggif type="FutureFL" caption="Most recent Futuretrack animation (also available in the Florida Storms app)"]Tuesday's rain may not completely erase the drought, but it should help in the areas that need it the most.

Rainfall forecast over next 3 days, with much of it likely to fall Tuesday and Tuesday night.

At this time last year, a drought was prevalent across central and south Florida, where it turned severe by late spring. Similar global weather patterns, namely the current La Nina cycle in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, often lead to dry and warm winters and a corresponding elevated fire season across Florida.

As of Monday evening, the Florida Forest Service reported that there were 50 active wildfires across the state, burning nearly 6000 acres. These numbers are slightly down from this time last year, when 54 fires were scorching more than 7,000 acres. The long range outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is for a drier and warmer than normal conditions to persist through late spring.

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE: Six record highs were added to the list Wednesday (available just beneath this paragraph), which brings the monthly total to 35.  The record high of 88 in Tampa was the seventh one tied or broken this month in that city alone.

Record highs are again in jeopardy today in Florida.  Cities projected to come within one degree of their record fro February 22 are Pensacola, Tallahassee, and yes - Tampa.[/vc_message]


Original story posted Wednesday...

It certainly feels like winter is over in Florida. Check that - it feels more like summer has arrived.

Wednesday could be the sixth day in a row a record high temperature will be tied or broken in the Sunshine State. It would also add to the list of 29 records already tied or broken this month alone.Not only are the daily records falling by the dozens, Sarasota and Tampa broke all-time monthly maximum records Tuesday with highs approaching 90.

Another record high temperature was reached at Tampa today with 89 degrees. This breaks the old record for today of 87 last set in 1997. This also breaks the ALL-TIME record high for the month of February which was 88 degrees set just yesterday and also back on February 26 1971.

— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) February 20, 2018

 

An area of high pressure developed off the Atlantic coast earlier this week, and it won't be going anywhere soon. This will keep the abnormal warmth in place across the Southeast U.S. for the next week to ten days.

While temperatures have been 10-15 degrees above normal east of the Mississippi River this week, they are 10-20 degrees below the normal from the West Coast to the Rockies, with plenty of fresh snow across the mountains in between.

Meanwhile in Florida, the record-setting warmth likely continues for at least one more day.

Content is current now, not necessarily at the time of the post.

Meteorologist Cyndee O'Quinn and UF Forecaster Kyle Kipple contributed to this report.

This story was posted on January 2, 2018...


Winter Storm WARNINGS just posted from Tallahassee to Lake City, with advisories for surrounding areas including Gainesville and Jacksonville.

Posted by Florida Storms on Tuesday, 2 January 2018

February, in contrast, has been much warmer. Temperatures have been running 5 to 10 degrees above normal in cities such as Jacksonville, Gainesville, Tampa and Orlando. In fact, record highs are in jeopardy this week in Fort Myers, Melbourne and Tampa. And even where ice and snow hit not once, but twice last month in the Florida Panhandle, temperatures are now averaging five to seven degrees above the February norm.

The frigid January has been completely erased by the extreme warmth of the first fourteen days of February.

The three maps below show how cold January was compared to normal, how warm February is so far, and where we stand for the season as a whole (since December 1st) compared to normal.A La Nina weather pattern was largely the reasoning behind the warm seasonal forecast. When the waters near the equator over the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, a shift in the steering currents typically prevents long-lasting intrusions of cold air from reaching Florida. This was not the case during the first half of the season, as there was a more dominate upper-level flow from Canada, overriding the typical affects from the Pacific.

Long range data continues to suggest the warmer patter, now likely being influenced by the continuing La Nina pattern, will continue into early spring. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal statewide for at least the next five days, with no sign of a strong cold front through the coming weekend.

Content is current now, not necessarily at the time of the post.

No one can say they've seen it before, but most Floridians will have a chance Wednesday morning.

It was March 31, 1866 when the last total lunar eclipse occurred during a super moon that was also a blue moon. Nearly 152 years later, the trifecta celestial event dubbed as the Super Blue Blood Moon will occur again just before sunrise January 31, 2018.

Viewing conditions are expected to be super in the northern and central parts of the state, especially along the Gulf Coast from Fort Myers to Pensacola. However, questionable viewing conditions are expected along the Atlantic Coast from Melbourne to Miami, where patches of low clouds are likely to move in off the Atlantic.A total lunar eclipse will occur during the super (and blue) moon Wednesday morning, starting just before 6:00 am. As the earth's shadow begins to obscure the moon, it may turn a shade or hint of red. This is caused by the earth's atmosphere bending red light into the planet's shadow while scattering the blue wavelengths.

How red the moon may appear to Floridians is a bit uncertain, as the umbra phase - the point when the earth's shadow begins to cover the moon - will only occur a few minutes prior to sunrise and moonset.

The best time for Floridians to view the super blue blood moon is between 6:45 and 7:00 am EST. At this time, the moon will be setting in the western sky, just a bit north of due west. Locations with an unobstructed view to the west or at a higher elevation will be ideal.[vc_video link="https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=42&v=IrydklNpcFI" title="NASA Video on Super Blue Blood Moon"]


Meteorologist Cyndee O'Quinn contributed to this report.

  1. Entire state gets measurable rain
  2. Morning in panhandle, afternoon/evening across peninsula
  3. Most areas around an inch, locally higher

Sunday will be a soggy day across the Sunshine State.  We have no doubts about it.  This isn't the best of news for NFL Pro Bowl fans or players.

It will take a *pro* fan to sit through the @NFL #ProBowl in #Orlando. Hours of rain on the way, especially during the 2nd half. #flwx pic.twitter.com/22napOfigf

— Jeff Huffman (@HuffmanHeadsUp) January 27, 2018

The latest data suggests the storm system likely to produce the washout will arrive in the Florida Panhandle Saturday night, then strengthen as it moves across the rest of the state Sunday afternoon and evening. A large area of rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms, is expected to develop ahead of the approaching front and in many spots, produce several hours of rain.  The quick-moving storm system will then exit the state early Monday.

Update on Soggy Sunday

Quick update on the timing/amounts of the soggy Sunday expected.

Posted by Florida Storms on Saturday, 27 January 2018

Thunderstorms are also possible as the storm system nears Sunday evening, especially embedded in some of the heavier rain bands. However, at this time, thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage or hail are not anticipated.

Rainfall totals will generally be around an inch in most areas, with locally up to two inches of rain possible before the storm system exits Monday.

Content in this section is current now, not necessarily at the time of the post.
Content in this section is current now, not necessarily at the time of this post. 

If the warmer weather sends you outdoors this weekend, your plans will be spoiled if you choose the wrong day.

A low pressure system is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday Night. It will bring heavy rain to most of the state Sunday.

If you are making outdoor plans this weekend, see why @MetCyndee says you'll definitely want to pick Saturday. #flwx pic.twitter.com/Dw1q0txEGb

— Florida Storms (@FloridaStorms) January 26, 2018

 

Widespread rain will move into the Florida Panhandle Sunday morning. The wet weather will then move east toward Jacksonville and Gainesville by midday, before eventually overspreading the rest of the peninsula late Sunday afternoon. In most cities, the rain will likely last for several hours and could be heavy at times.

Thunderstorms are also possible as the storm system nears Sunday evening, especially embedded in some of the heavier rain bands. However, at this time, thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage or hail are not anticipated.

Rainfall totals will generally be between 1 to 2 inches in most areas, with locations near the I-10 corridor possibly receiving as much as 3 inches of rain before the storm system exits Monday.

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