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FLORIDA
STORMS
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
LOCATED
60 MI...100 KM S OF MADGALEN ISLANDS ABOUT 200
WINDS
90 MPH
PRESSURE
960 MB
MOVING
NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 , 2019
DORIAN WREAKING HAVOC OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, HALF A MILLION CUSTOMERS WITH NO POWER,
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada overnight and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in Nova Scotia and are forecast to occur in Newfoundland overnight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada overnight and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in Nova Scotia and are forecast to occur in Newfoundland overnight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
- Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Prince Edward Island
- Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Prince Edward Island
- Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico
- Fundy National Park to Shediac
- Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
- Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
- Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour
- Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
- Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Prince Edward Island
- Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Prince Edward Island
- Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico
- Fundy National Park to Shediac
- Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
- Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
- Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour
- Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are still occuring over portions of Nova Scotia. Hurricane conditions are also expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area overnight and Sunday. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Sunday Night:

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are still occuring over portions of Nova Scotia. Hurricane conditions are also expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area overnight and Sunday. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Sunday Night:

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 62.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this general motion with a turn to the northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian will be moving near or over western Newfoundland on Sunday and then enter the North Atlantic late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occcuring mainly over water. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 62.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this general motion with a turn to the northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian will be moving near or over western Newfoundland on Sunday and then enter the North Atlantic late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occcuring mainly over water. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian made landfall near Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia several hours ago. Since then, the powerful cyclone has continued to move rapidly to the north-northeast and is now just east of Prince Edward Island. The wind field has expanded considerably, and the cyclone is producing tropical-storm-force winds over an extensive area of the Canadian Maritimes. The powerful cyclone is expected to continue with a large wind field, but gradual weakening is anticipated as forecast by most of the global models.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northeast at 23 kt. Since the cyclone is embedded within the fast extratropical westerly flow, this general track with a turn to the northeast is anticipated until dissipation in about 2 days. Track guidance is in very good agreement with this motion, and the NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope.

The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) provided guidance to prepare this forecast.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended.

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian made landfall near Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia several hours ago. Since then, the powerful cyclone has continued to move rapidly to the north-northeast and is now just east of Prince Edward Island. The wind field has expanded considerably, and the cyclone is producing tropical-storm-force winds over an extensive area of the Canadian Maritimes. The powerful cyclone is expected to continue with a large wind field, but gradual weakening is anticipated as forecast by most of the global models.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northeast at 23 kt. Since the cyclone is embedded within the fast extratropical westerly flow, this general track with a turn to the northeast is anticipated until dissipation in about 2 days. Track guidance is in very good agreement with this motion, and the NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope.

The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) provided guidance to prepare this forecast.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended.

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