1. Gonzalo is causing gusty winds across portions of the southern Windward Islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials.xx

2. Gonzalo is producing heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding.xx

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has canceled the Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago and Grenada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty conditions associated with squalls will be possible across the southern Windward Islands for the rest of the afternoon. These squalls will spread westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea through Sunday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela. Gonzalo is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches over the southern Windward Islands, the Leeward Antilles, and the remainder of far northern Venezuela. This includes Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in the mountainous terrain of Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela, which may lead to flash flooding.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gonzalo was estimated to be near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 20 mph (32 km/h). A general westward to westnorthwestward motion is expected today and tonight. On the forecast track, Gonzalo or its remnants will move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea today and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night, if not sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches).

Gonzalo is looking very ragged, with a cloud field that more resembles a tropical squall than a tropical storm. If Gonzalo still has a well-defined center, it is located to the east of the primary area of deep convection and is obscured by cirrus clouds. It is possible that ASCAT data will provide more information on the status of Gonzalo later this morning. For now, the intensity is held at 35 kt based on overnight reconnaissance data, but it is possible that Gonzalo is no longer producing winds of that magnitude except in squalls not directly related to the system's circulation.

Gonzalo appears to have continued westward since the last advisory, with a somewhat uncertain forward speed estimate of 16 kt. As noted in the previous advisory, Gonzalo is not expected to gain much latitude today and should continue generally westward for the next day or so. Close proximity to land and unfavorable large-scale environmental factors should cause Gonzalo to weaken and open into a trough by late Sunday, if not sooner. No significant changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts which both remain near the multi-model consensus.