1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermudatoday, however, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Warning for Bermuda with a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions on Bermuda should persist into the mid to late afternoon hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the northnortheast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue into the early evening hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the eastnortheast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observed apeak 700 mb flight-level wind of 93 kt and a SFMR wind of 80 kt 25miles to the northeast of the center of the 35 mile wide eye. The central pressure, also reported by the aircraft, has fallen to 970mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the next 24 hours. At the 48 hour forecast period, weakening will commence as the cyclone becomes involved with a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the Canadian Maritimes. Paulette should begin losing its tropical characteristics toward the end of the week. The peak intensity is increased a little at the 24 hour period to agree with the HCCA and IVCN intensity multi-models and follows these aids through the remaining portion of the forecast period.The initial motion estimate is 355/12 kt. Paulette will begin accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning then turn east-northeastward with a further increased in forward motion early Wednesday morning. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond the 36 hour period and basically lies down the middle of the tightly clustered deterministic and regional model guidance.