CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda should persist into the evening hours.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and associated coastal flooding and rough surf conditions on Bermuda should begin to subside this evening.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through this evening, with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northnortheast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the eastnortheast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday afternonn through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to eastnortheastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

Overall, Paulette's satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours. In fact, a 1743 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass showed a developing concentric eyewall cloud pattern with a fully enclosed eyewall and a larger outer convective ring that was nearly closed off. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective T-number of 94 kt and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the next 12-24 hours. On Wednesday, weakening is expected to begin as the cyclone traverses a sharp gradient of decreasing (less than 23C) oceanic temperatures. Around the same time, the deterministic models are indicating that the cyclone will begin to interact with a baroclinic boundary associated with major shortwave trough. Paulette should begin to lose its tropical characteristics at that time and complete an extratropical cyclone transition in 3 days. The ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the transition completed in 48 hours, which is also a possibility. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or 030/13 kt. Paulette will begin accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning, and then turn east-northeastward with a further increase in forward speed by Tuesday night. A slower southeastward motion is forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and lies down the middle of the tightly clustered various interpolated deterministic aids.

The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1232 UTC scatterometer passes.