There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Paulette is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast or eastnortheast is expected during the next couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn southeastward by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

Paulette has generally changed little overnight. The hurricane still has a central dense overcast feature with an eye occasionally evident in satellite images. Convective banding remains well organized, especially to the north of the center. The satellite intensity estimates range from 77 to 102 kt and based on that data, the initial intensity is again held at 90 kt.

The hurricane could strengthen slightly in the short term due to a combination of baroclinic influences from an approaching trough and relatively warm water beneath the cyclone. However, a steady weakening trend should commence on Wednesday when Paulette moves over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear. These factors should ultimately lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete by day 3. However, some of the guidance suggests that this could occur up to a day sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and GFS models.

Paulette continues to pick up speed, and the latest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 17 kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward even more during the next couple of days as it becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After a few days, however, Paulette will likely turn southeastward and then southward as it moves in the flow on the west side of a cut off deep-layer low. There are some differences in the models on how sharply Paulette turns southward, but they generally agree on the overall scenario. The NHC track forecast lies roughly between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.