There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 57.9 West. Paulette is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A faster motion toward the eastnortheast is expected through Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the eastsoutheast and southsoutheast late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone undergoes extratropical transition. Paulette should complete its transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic zone. The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into the western portion of the cyclone. Additionally, Paulette's rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system, while drying out in the southern semi-circle. Only fragments of the eyewall remain in that particular area. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs. Afterward, the water temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system. As a result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical guidance.

The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east- southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple conse