1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long durationrainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will alsospread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the LowerMississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end ofthe week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding ispossible.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times ofhigh tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisianacoasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in theseareas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texascoast later this evening and continue into Tuesday.
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...24 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...13 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 13 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...12 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area through Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.
SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 96.1 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will likely move inland overnight. Beta is forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
Beta's convective cloud structure has continued to erode since the previous advisory as cold-air stratocumulus clouds have wrapped around the entire and into the system center. Most of the cloud tops are barely reaching the freezing level, with the exception of a small convective burst that has recently developed near and to the northwest of the low-level center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt and is based on data from the last Air Force Reserve reconnaissance leg that indicated peak SFMR surface winds of 40-42 kt northwest of the center and a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 999-1000 mb.
The initial motion estimate 310/04 kt. Beta is expected to move onshore the central Texas coast later tonight, and then stalling along or just inland from the coast during the 12-24 hour period when the steering currents collapse due to a complete break down of a weak ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak trough to the west of the cyclone is then forecast to nudge Beta east-northeastward toward the Gulf of Mexico in the 36-60 hour period, with the cyclone possibly reaching the warm Gulf waters by 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, the approaching mid-level trough Beta is expected to move Beta a little faster toward the northeast until the cyclone dissipates over the Lower Mississippi Valley area by day 5. The latest NHC track guidance has shifted a little farther to right or east of the previous forecast track, with most of the models now taking Beta back out over the western Gulf of Mexico by 24 hours. As a result, the new NHC official track forecast has been nudged a little farther to the right of the previous, but remains to the left or west of the NOAA-HCCA consensus model and the UKMET model.
West-southwesterly wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected to affect Beta for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual increase in the shear thereafter. That unfavorable flow regime, along with land interaction, should induce a slow weakening trend throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains a little above the available model guidance through 48 hours since Beta is forecast to remain very close to or over the Gulf of Mexico where convective rain bands containing tropical-storm-force winds could possibly move onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas.
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Meat Cove to Tidnish
- North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
- Magdalen Islands
- Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
- Prince Edward Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later tonight or on Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropicalstormconditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 61.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this motion is expected tonight followed by a turn to the northnorthwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the northnortheast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is expected to gain some strength overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong posttropical cyclone before reaching Nova Scotia.
Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches).
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Wilfred were located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 47.4 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Winds should continue to decrease over the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
westerly vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on Wilfred. Recent infrared satellite imagery along with scatterometer data indicate that Wilfred's low-level circulation has become an open trough of low pressure. Therefore, Wilfred is no longer a tropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The remaining deep convection has a linear shape and appears to be the result of the system interacting with an upper-level trough to its northwest. The scatterometer data revealed peak winds of close to 30 kt to the north of the trough axis, and that is the basis for the initial intensity.
The system is moving generally westward at about 15 kt. The trough should continue to move westward at a slightly slower forward speed until it weakens and dissipates within a few days.
This is the last NHC advisory on Wilfred. Additional information on the remnants of this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Issued: 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the far western Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast, and on Hurricane Teddy, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette located about 250 miles south of the easternmost Azores are showing some signs of organization. Only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday while the system moves eastward at 10 to 15 mph. By late Tuesday or Tuesday night, the system is forecast to move into less favorable environmental conditions, and further development is not expected. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the Central Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida is associated with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Marginally conducive environmental conditions are expected when the system approaches the Florida Keys and South Florida late this week, and development, if any, should be slow to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Florida Keys tonight, and over western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2
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