1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast.  Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are expected there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the
mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.  See products
from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more
details.

WHAT'S NEW:

None

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Surf City to Duck NC
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: [TOP] Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday, with locally higher amounts. SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 77.2 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn toward the east is forecast to occur on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Arthur's satellite presentation has not changed much since the
previous advisory.  There are still some fragmented convective 
bands over the eastern portions of the circulation, but convective
activity remains limited over the western half of the storm.  A 
late-arriving ASCAT overpass from around the time of the previous
advisory revealed somewhat lower wind speeds than reported by
this morning's reconnaissance aircraft.  This could be the result 
of the convection becoming more fragmented after the aircraft 
sampled that portion of the storm or related to the low bias of 
the ASCAT instrument.  Regardless, the initial intensity remains a
possibly generous 40 kt for now.  Another reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate Arthur this evening.

Arthur is forecast to remain within a low wind shear environment
and over marginally warm sea surface temperatures through early
Monday.  These conditions favor some strengthening, however the
sprawling structure of the cyclone and nearby dry mid-level air are 
likely to temper any increase in wind speed.  After 36-48 hours, 
baroclinic forcing is expected to help the post-tropical cyclone 
maintain its intensity.  Later in the period, the frontal 
gradients decrease which should cause weakening.

Recent satellite fixes show that the Arthur is still moving 
north-northeastward at about 8 kt. The tropical storm should begin 
to accelerate northeastward overnight as a mid-level trough moves 
into the eastern United States.  By Tuesday night, the steering 
flow is expected to become westerly which should cause Arthur to 
turn eastward, then southeastward later in the forecast period.  
The lastest dynamical track guidance has come into a little better 
agreement through 36-48 hours with the GFS and ECMWF converging on 
the previous NHC track. As a result, little change was needed to 
the first couple of days of the earlier NHC track forecast.  After 
that time, most of the guidance has trended toward a faster 
eastward and east-southeastward motion, and the NHC forecast has 
been  adjusted accordingly in that direction as well.