FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Nicholas
LOCATED
130 MI NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1008 MB
MOVING
NNW AT 13 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021
Tropical storm Nicholas forms in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning on Monday. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm on Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coasts late Monday night and Tuesday.

2. There is the possibility of life-threatening storm surge along the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning on Monday. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm on Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coasts late Monday night and Tuesday.

2. There is the possibility of life-threatening storm surge along the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Barra el Mezquital northward to the U.S./Mexico border. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from north of Port Aransas to High Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
- Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Barra el Mezquital northward to the U.S./Mexico border. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from north of Port Aransas to High Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
- Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX...2 4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2 4

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday.

Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX...2 4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2 4

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 94.8 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower northward or north northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 94.8 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower northward or north northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and very recently become better organized with a loose band of convection around the northeastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the system has found 44-kt flight-level winds and SFMR winds that support a 35-kt initial intensity. Based on the recent increase in organization and the 35-kt initial intensity, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Nicholas, the fourteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The storm is located within an environment of moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, over warm waters, and in a moist and unstable atmosphere. These conditions should allow gradual strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and calls for gradual strengthening until the system reaches the coast of Texas. The official wind speed forecast is near the higher end of the guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical guidance, the HFIP corrected consensus, and the HWRF. In this case, the intensity forecast is highly dependent on eventual track of the system. A track to the east of the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen. Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result in the system interacting with land much sooner.

Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 330/11 kt. A north-northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is sliding east near the coast of the Carolinas, should continue to steer Nicholas in that direction for the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, steering currents weaken and the cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northeastward between a couple of mid-level ridges located to the east and west of Nicholas. The track guidance generally agrees with this overall scenario but there is some cross-track spread with the UKMET along the left side of the guidance envelope taking the storm into northeastern Mexico, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON are along the right side. The NHC track is near the various consensus models and both the EC and GFS ensemble means.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and very recently become better organized with a loose band of convection around the northeastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the system has found 44-kt flight-level winds and SFMR winds that support a 35-kt initial intensity. Based on the recent increase in organization and the 35-kt initial intensity, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Nicholas, the fourteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The storm is located within an environment of moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, over warm waters, and in a moist and unstable atmosphere. These conditions should allow gradual strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and calls for gradual strengthening until the system reaches the coast of Texas. The official wind speed forecast is near the higher end of the guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical guidance, the HFIP corrected consensus, and the HWRF. In this case, the intensity forecast is highly dependent on eventual track of the system. A track to the east of the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen. Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result in the system interacting with land much sooner.

Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 330/11 kt. A north-northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is sliding east near the coast of the Carolinas, should continue to steer Nicholas in that direction for the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, steering currents weaken and the cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northeastward between a couple of mid-level ridges located to the east and west of Nicholas. The track guidance generally agrees with this overall scenario but there is some cross-track spread with the UKMET along the left side of the guidance envelope taking the storm into northeastern Mexico, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON are along the right side. The NHC track is near the various consensus models and both the EC and GFS ensemble means.

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