FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Nicholas
LOCATED
70 MI SSE OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
WINDS
60 MPH
PRESSURE
1002 MB
MOVING
N AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Nicholas moving erratically northward just offshore the southern coast of Texas.
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also expected.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass by late afternoon through tonight.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of south Texas into the afternoon.

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also expected.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass by late afternoon through tonight.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of south Texas into the afternoon.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
- Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
- Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
- Corpus Christi Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
- Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
- Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
- Corpus Christi Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Lifethreatening, flash and urban flooding impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX

Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...35 ft San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay...24 ft Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, TX...24 ft Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...24 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...13 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...13 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon or this evening.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Lifethreatening, flash and urban flooding impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX

Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...35 ft San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay...24 ft Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, TX...24 ft Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...24 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...13 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...13 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon or this evening.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 96.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northnortheast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will continue to pass just offshore of the coast of south Texas this afternoon and move onshore along the coast of central Texas later this evening.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwest Gulf coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 96.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northnortheast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will continue to pass just offshore of the coast of south Texas this afternoon and move onshore along the coast of central Texas later this evening.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwest Gulf coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Doppler radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along with reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, indicate that Nicholas' inner-core structure has undergone some radical changes since the previous advisory. The earlier near-eyewall pattern dissipated a few hours ago, and has been replaced with what appears to be an ongoing reformation of a new center abut 90 nmi north-northeast of the old center. The aircraft recently found a pressure of 1000 to 1002 mb with the dissipating original center, while Doppler radar velocity data show a pronounced mid- to upper-level circulation forming farther north as previously mentioned. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is going to be concentrating its reconnoiter mission in Nicholas' northeastern quadrant to see if reformation of the low-level center is occurring beneath the mid-level circulation noted in radar data. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on recent aircraft 850-mb flight-level winds of 59 kt, which equates to about 47 kt equivalent surface winds.

The initial motion is an uncertain 005/10 kt due to the erosion and ongoing reformation of the center. Despite the recent inner-core erosion, the latest NHC model guidance remains in fairly good agreement on Nicholas moving northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The GFS model has been performing exceptionally well with predicting the recent erosion and more northward reformation of the Nicholas' center. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory track, and lies along the eastern edge of the track consensus model envelope, which is to the left of the GFS track prediction.

Although the inner-core convective pattern has been disrupted, recent trends in the radar data suggest that a new center should reform farther northeast into the convective cloud shield. The latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear analyses indicate that westerly shear of near 20 kt is allegedly affecting Nicholas. However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that the upper-level shear vector is actually from a south-southwesterly direction, which is more along than across the cyclone's forward motion, thus reducing the magnitude and negative effects of the vertical wind shear. Therefore, strengthening is still expected until landfall as Nicholas continues to move over slightly warmer Gulf waters. It is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane just before landfall, and that's the reason for the northeastward extension of the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should rapidly weaken after landfall due to increased frictional effects, strong southwesterly shear, and entrainment of mid-level dry air, resulting in degeneration into a tropical depression by late Tuesday and a remnant low on Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory intensity forecast.

Doppler radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along with reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, indicate that Nicholas' inner-core structure has undergone some radical changes since the previous advisory. The earlier near-eyewall pattern dissipated a few hours ago, and has been replaced with what appears to be an ongoing reformation of a new center abut 90 nmi north-northeast of the old center. The aircraft recently found a pressure of 1000 to 1002 mb with the dissipating original center, while Doppler radar velocity data show a pronounced mid- to upper-level circulation forming farther north as previously mentioned. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is going to be concentrating its reconnoiter mission in Nicholas' northeastern quadrant to see if reformation of the low-level center is occurring beneath the mid-level circulation noted in radar data. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on recent aircraft 850-mb flight-level winds of 59 kt, which equates to about 47 kt equivalent surface winds.

The initial motion is an uncertain 005/10 kt due to the erosion and ongoing reformation of the center. Despite the recent inner-core erosion, the latest NHC model guidance remains in fairly good agreement on Nicholas moving northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The GFS model has been performing exceptionally well with predicting the recent erosion and more northward reformation of the Nicholas' center. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory track, and lies along the eastern edge of the track consensus model envelope, which is to the left of the GFS track prediction.

Although the inner-core convective pattern has been disrupted, recent trends in the radar data suggest that a new center should reform farther northeast into the convective cloud shield. The latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear analyses indicate that westerly shear of near 20 kt is allegedly affecting Nicholas. However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that the upper-level shear vector is actually from a south-southwesterly direction, which is more along than across the cyclone's forward motion, thus reducing the magnitude and negative effects of the vertical wind shear. Therefore, strengthening is still expected until landfall as Nicholas continues to move over slightly warmer Gulf waters. It is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane just before landfall, and that's the reason for the northeastward extension of the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should rapidly weaken after landfall due to increased frictional effects, strong southwesterly shear, and entrainment of mid-level dry air, resulting in degeneration into a tropical depression by late Tuesday and a remnant low on Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory intensity forecast.

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