FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Odette
LOCATED
225 MI SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1010 MB
MOVING
NE AT 15 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021
Tropical storm Odette forms off the u.s. Mid-Atlantic coast.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.

SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A turn toward the east northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. Mid Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odette is expected to become a strong post tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A turn toward the east northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. Mid Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odette is expected to become a strong post tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center, thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with 35-kt winds.

With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt. Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day 3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is indicated in the official forecast.

Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center, thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with 35-kt winds.

With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt. Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day 3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is indicated in the official forecast.

Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

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