FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Odette
LOCATED
265 MI SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1010 MB
MOVING
NE AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021
Odette poorly organized off the u.s. Mid-Atlantic coast.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.

SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 71.2 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster east northeast to northeast motion is expected this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. Mid Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odette is expected to become a strong post tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 71.2 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster east northeast to northeast motion is expected this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. Mid Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odette is expected to become a strong post tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

Satellite images indicate that west-southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Odette. Deep convection has been separating from the low-level circulation, and the closest area of thunderstorms is now more than 100 miles east of the center. The circulation is rather broad, but there is a clear center a couple of hundred miles off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. A very recent ASCAT pass showed some stronger winds in the thunderstorms more than a couple of hundred miles east of the low-level center, but its not clear if those winds are reliable and representative of the storm's true intensity. Hopefully more scatterometer data with be available soon to better assess Odette's strength.

Although it appears that Odette has been meandering lately, a 12-hour average yields a northeastward motion at about 9 kt. The storm is expected to move faster northeastward or east-northeastward off the northeast U.S. and Atlantic Canada coasts this weekend as it moves in the mid-latitude flow. After that time, the models show a significant slow down as the cyclone cuts off from the progressive flow to the south or southeast of Newfoundland. Although there is quite a bit of spread in the models from days 3-5, almost all of the guidance shows the storm stalling by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. This forecast still lies to the north of the consensus aids, however.

Odette is already beginning the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone, and it will likely complete the transition by Saturday night when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream Current and merging with an approaching trough. The cyclone is likely to reach its peak intensity as an extratropical storm in 48-60 hours when the baroclinic dynamics are most favorable. Gradual weakening seems likely beyond that time. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance.

As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

Satellite images indicate that west-southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Odette. Deep convection has been separating from the low-level circulation, and the closest area of thunderstorms is now more than 100 miles east of the center. The circulation is rather broad, but there is a clear center a couple of hundred miles off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. A very recent ASCAT pass showed some stronger winds in the thunderstorms more than a couple of hundred miles east of the low-level center, but its not clear if those winds are reliable and representative of the storm's true intensity. Hopefully more scatterometer data with be available soon to better assess Odette's strength.

Although it appears that Odette has been meandering lately, a 12-hour average yields a northeastward motion at about 9 kt. The storm is expected to move faster northeastward or east-northeastward off the northeast U.S. and Atlantic Canada coasts this weekend as it moves in the mid-latitude flow. After that time, the models show a significant slow down as the cyclone cuts off from the progressive flow to the south or southeast of Newfoundland. Although there is quite a bit of spread in the models from days 3-5, almost all of the guidance shows the storm stalling by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. This forecast still lies to the north of the consensus aids, however.

Odette is already beginning the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone, and it will likely complete the transition by Saturday night when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream Current and merging with an approaching trough. The cyclone is likely to reach its peak intensity as an extratropical storm in 48-60 hours when the baroclinic dynamics are most favorable. Gradual weakening seems likely beyond that time. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance.

As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

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