FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Odette
LOCATED
225 MI S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
WINDS
45 MPH
PRESSURE
1008 MB
MOVING
NE AT 15 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021
Odette forecast to bring strong winds to newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.

SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 69.3 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northeast to east northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass south of Atlantic Canada on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is expected to become a strong post tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 69.3 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northeast to east northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass south of Atlantic Canada on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is expected to become a strong post tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Odette does not look very much like a tropical cyclone. All of the deep convection continues to be displaced well to the east of the poorly-defined center due to strong westerly shear. The circulation is elongated from southwest to northeast and contains multiple low-cloud swirls. The current intensity of the system is estimated to be near 40 kt based on earlier scatterometer observations, and these stronger winds are occurring in the convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, well removed from the center.

Since the center is not so easy to locate, the motion is rather uncertain. However the system appears to be accelerating and the initial motion estimate is roughly 050/13 kt. Odette is embedded within the flow on the south side of a mid-latitude shortwave trough. This steering pattern should carry the system northeastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days. Afterwards, the trough is predicted by the global models to cut off to the south of eastern Newfoundland. As a result, Odette is likely to turn a little south of east and decelerate in 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to begin moving northeastward on the east side of the cutoff low. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one but a little farther south around days 4 and 5. This is in good agreement with the latest corrected model consensus.

The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Odette will get even stronger over the next few days. As the system will soon begin to move over the cooler waters to the north of the Gulf Stream, its primary energy source should come from baroclinicity. In about 24 hours, the dynamical guidance shows significant thermal advection around the cyclone, signifying its extratropical transition. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone deepening through 48 hours and the official forecast calls for some strengthening up to that time. Later in the period, as the baroclinic energy source appears to wane, gradual weakening is expected.

As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend and into Monday, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday as a strong post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

Odette does not look very much like a tropical cyclone. All of the deep convection continues to be displaced well to the east of the poorly-defined center due to strong westerly shear. The circulation is elongated from southwest to northeast and contains multiple low-cloud swirls. The current intensity of the system is estimated to be near 40 kt based on earlier scatterometer observations, and these stronger winds are occurring in the convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, well removed from the center.

Since the center is not so easy to locate, the motion is rather uncertain. However the system appears to be accelerating and the initial motion estimate is roughly 050/13 kt. Odette is embedded within the flow on the south side of a mid-latitude shortwave trough. This steering pattern should carry the system northeastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days. Afterwards, the trough is predicted by the global models to cut off to the south of eastern Newfoundland. As a result, Odette is likely to turn a little south of east and decelerate in 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to begin moving northeastward on the east side of the cutoff low. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one but a little farther south around days 4 and 5. This is in good agreement with the latest corrected model consensus.

The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Odette will get even stronger over the next few days. As the system will soon begin to move over the cooler waters to the north of the Gulf Stream, its primary energy source should come from baroclinicity. In about 24 hours, the dynamical guidance shows significant thermal advection around the cyclone, signifying its extratropical transition. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone deepening through 48 hours and the official forecast calls for some strengthening up to that time. Later in the period, as the baroclinic energy source appears to wane, gradual weakening is expected.

As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend and into Monday, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday as a strong post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

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