FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Odette
LOCATED
235 MI SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
WINDS
45 MPH
PRESSURE
1002 MB
MOVING
NE AT 17 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021
Odette forecast to be a strengthening post-tropical cyclone by tonight.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.

SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 67.3 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the east northeast at a faster forward speed is expected by this evening. Odette should then slow down and turn toward the east and southeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass south of Atlantic Canada Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is expected to become a strong post tropical low by tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 67.3 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the east northeast at a faster forward speed is expected by this evening. Odette should then slow down and turn toward the east and southeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass south of Atlantic Canada Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is expected to become a strong post tropical low by tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Strong shear of about 30 kt from the west-southwest continues to push all of Odette's deep convection well to the east of the surface center. The center itself lacks some definition, with multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common point. Odette is well on its way through the extratropical transition process, with cold air advection noted on the west side of the circulation, and a band of overcast clouds on the north side of the developing warm front. We're awaiting some new ASCAT data, which should arrive soon, and for now the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on continuity.

Odette is being picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, and it is moving a little faster toward the northeast, or 055/15 kt. The cyclone should turn to the east-northeast and accelerate further later today, but then a significant slow down is expected on days 3 through 5 when Odette detaches from the mid-latitude flow and meanders to the southeast of Newfoundland. In contrast to yesterday, the global models are in much better agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has been hedged in the direction of the GFEX consensus aids, since the GFS and ECMWF global models should have a good handle on the behavior of an extratropical cyclone.

The global models vary slightly on when extratropical transition will be complete, but the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it should happen by this evening or tonight. Baroclinic forcing will likely be the main contributor to Odette's expected strengthening over the next few days, and the intensity models, including the GFS and ECMWF global models, have been consistent in showing the peak winds reaching about 55 kt in 36-48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to occlude and lose its upper-air support in about 48 hours, which should lead to gradual weakening through the end of the 5-day forecast period.

Odette's wind field is expected to expand significantly during the next few days while the system becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

Strong shear of about 30 kt from the west-southwest continues to push all of Odette's deep convection well to the east of the surface center. The center itself lacks some definition, with multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common point. Odette is well on its way through the extratropical transition process, with cold air advection noted on the west side of the circulation, and a band of overcast clouds on the north side of the developing warm front. We're awaiting some new ASCAT data, which should arrive soon, and for now the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on continuity.

Odette is being picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, and it is moving a little faster toward the northeast, or 055/15 kt. The cyclone should turn to the east-northeast and accelerate further later today, but then a significant slow down is expected on days 3 through 5 when Odette detaches from the mid-latitude flow and meanders to the southeast of Newfoundland. In contrast to yesterday, the global models are in much better agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has been hedged in the direction of the GFEX consensus aids, since the GFS and ECMWF global models should have a good handle on the behavior of an extratropical cyclone.

The global models vary slightly on when extratropical transition will be complete, but the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it should happen by this evening or tonight. Baroclinic forcing will likely be the main contributor to Odette's expected strengthening over the next few days, and the intensity models, including the GFS and ECMWF global models, have been consistent in showing the peak winds reaching about 55 kt in 36-48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to occlude and lose its upper-air support in about 48 hours, which should lead to gradual weakening through the end of the 5-day forecast period.

Odette's wind field is expected to expand significantly during the next few days while the system becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

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