FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Paulette
LOCATED
385 MI SE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
75 MPH
PRESSURE
981 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropicalstormforce winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropicalstormforce winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength Sunday afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength Sunday afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westnorthwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 981 mb (28.97 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westnorthwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 981 mb (28.97 inches).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981 mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65 kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season.

The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday. The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance suite at all forecast hours.

Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981 mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65 kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season.

The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday. The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance suite at all forecast hours.

Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period.

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