FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Paulette
LOCATED
280 MI SE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
80 MPH
PRESSURE
978 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 800 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sundayand will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolongedperiod of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expectedon Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is ineffect for the island. Preparations to protect life and propertyshould be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sundayand will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolongedperiod of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expectedon Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is ineffect for the island. Preparations to protect life and propertyshould be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropicalstormforce winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropicalstormforce winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda today through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda today through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 61.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the westnorthwest or northwest is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 61.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the westnorthwest or northwest is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

Over the past 6 hours, conventional and passive microwave satellite data indicate that very little change to Paulette's overall convective cloud pattern and inner-core structure has occurred. A recent GMI pass indciated that the inner-core convection remains somewhat disheveled due to a narrow but pronounced band of dry air having penetrated the mid-levels of the cyclone. However, the low-level eye feature remains intact with a diameter of at least 30 nmi. Given the little change in structure since the previous reconnaissance mission, the intensity is being maintained at 65 kt. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Paulette later this morning to provide a better estimate of the hurricane's intensity.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. Overall, there is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The global and regional models are in excellent agreement on Paulette passing over or near Bermuda during the 24-36 hour period as the cyclone rounds a sharp east-to-west oriented subtropical ridge located near and due east of Bermuda. After passing Bermuda and moving north of the ridge in about 36 hours, Paulette is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough and associated surface cold front. There is one important feature to mention -- the official forecast track is west of the latest 0600 UTC interpolated models due to the interpolated model tracks taking the center of Paulette at least 30 nmi east of Bermuda. In contrast, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are less than 6 nmi apart at 12-48 hours, and that consensus brings the hurricane across or just west of Bermuda in about 30 hours. Therefore, the new NHC official track forecast is essentially just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies just west of the tightly packed NHC guidance envelope.

Environmental conditions appear favorable to Paulette to strengthen during the next 72 hours or so, with only occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air briefly interrupting the intensification process. The ragged inner core structure will likely delay intensification this morning, but by the this afternoon and continuing into Monday, the vertical shear is forecast by the global models to decrease to near zero, which should allow for significant strengthening to occur. In fact, it highly probable that Paulette will continue to intensify as the hurricane passes over Bermuda. By 48 hours when the hurricane is expected to be north of Bermuda, baroclinic interaction with the aforementioned deep-layer trough is forecast to aid in the intensification process with Paulette possibly becoming a major hurricane around 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt should gradually weaken the cyclone. It is possible that by 96 hours or so, Paulette could merge with a frontal system and become a powerful extratropical low. For now, however, Paulette is forecast to remain just ahead of the front within the warm sector of a flat frontal wave. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is near the upper end of intensity guidance throughout the 120-h forecast period.

Over the past 6 hours, conventional and passive microwave satellite data indicate that very little change to Paulette's overall convective cloud pattern and inner-core structure has occurred. A recent GMI pass indciated that the inner-core convection remains somewhat disheveled due to a narrow but pronounced band of dry air having penetrated the mid-levels of the cyclone. However, the low-level eye feature remains intact with a diameter of at least 30 nmi. Given the little change in structure since the previous reconnaissance mission, the intensity is being maintained at 65 kt. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Paulette later this morning to provide a better estimate of the hurricane's intensity.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. Overall, there is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The global and regional models are in excellent agreement on Paulette passing over or near Bermuda during the 24-36 hour period as the cyclone rounds a sharp east-to-west oriented subtropical ridge located near and due east of Bermuda. After passing Bermuda and moving north of the ridge in about 36 hours, Paulette is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough and associated surface cold front. There is one important feature to mention -- the official forecast track is west of the latest 0600 UTC interpolated models due to the interpolated model tracks taking the center of Paulette at least 30 nmi east of Bermuda. In contrast, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are less than 6 nmi apart at 12-48 hours, and that consensus brings the hurricane across or just west of Bermuda in about 30 hours. Therefore, the new NHC official track forecast is essentially just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies just west of the tightly packed NHC guidance envelope.

Environmental conditions appear favorable to Paulette to strengthen during the next 72 hours or so, with only occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air briefly interrupting the intensification process. The ragged inner core structure will likely delay intensification this morning, but by the this afternoon and continuing into Monday, the vertical shear is forecast by the global models to decrease to near zero, which should allow for significant strengthening to occur. In fact, it highly probable that Paulette will continue to intensify as the hurricane passes over Bermuda. By 48 hours when the hurricane is expected to be north of Bermuda, baroclinic interaction with the aforementioned deep-layer trough is forecast to aid in the intensification process with Paulette possibly becoming a major hurricane around 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt should gradually weaken the cyclone. It is possible that by 96 hours or so, Paulette could merge with a frontal system and become a powerful extratropical low. For now, however, Paulette is forecast to remain just ahead of the front within the warm sector of a flat frontal wave. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is near the upper end of intensity guidance throughout the 120-h forecast period.

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