FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Paulette
LOCATED
240 MI SE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
80 MPH
PRESSURE
976 MB
MOVING
NW AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020
PAULETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolongedperiod of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expectedon Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is ineffect for the island. Preparations to protect life and propertyshould be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolongedperiod of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expectedon Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is ineffect for the island. Preparations to protect life and propertyshould be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropicalstormforce winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropicalstormforce winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 61.9 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 61.9 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Paulette thismorning found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, which reducesto around 75 kt at the surface. However, around that same time thepeak winds measured by the SFMR instrument on board the aircraftwere only 58 kt. It is possible that the stronger winds suggested bythe flight-level values were not reaching the surface at thatlocation. Later on in the flight, the SFMR measured 64-kt winds inthe northwestern quadrant. Since there has been no notable change tothe structure of the hurricane since the aircraft was in the systema few hours ago, the initial intensity is being held at 70 kt and isa compromise of those two different peak values measured by theaircraft.

Infrared satellite imagery has been showing some dry air intrusion over the eastern portion of the circulation, causing a break in the eyewall there over the past few hours. There is currently deep convection firing around the remainder of the eyewall, and therefore it is anticipated the dry air will be worked out of the system soon. Very low wind shear and warm waters will support strengthening over the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it nears Bermuda Monday morning. The window for strengthening should continue for another 12-24 h after the cyclone passes Bermuda, and Paulette could become a major hurricane during that time. After 48 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly increase. After 72 h, Paulette is expected to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm, and by 120 h those SSTs will be near 22 degrees C. The NHC forecast shows a weakening trend beginning after 48 h due to the negative environmental factors. By 120 h, the global models suggest that Paulette will have completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The only change to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous advisory was a slight upward adjustment over the first few days due to the increase in strength found by the aircraft this morning. This forecast is in between the LGEM and HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA.

Paulette is now moving northwestward at 12 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue until just after the cyclone passes Bermuda. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn north, then on Monday night northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Later on in the forecast period, a slower eastward motion is indicated once the aforementioned trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one through 48 h and lies in the middle of the latest global and regional track model guidance. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus track guidance. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions should reach Bermuda by this evening, with hurricane force winds arriving there overnight.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Paulette thismorning found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, which reducesto around 75 kt at the surface. However, around that same time thepeak winds measured by the SFMR instrument on board the aircraftwere only 58 kt. It is possible that the stronger winds suggested bythe flight-level values were not reaching the surface at thatlocation. Later on in the flight, the SFMR measured 64-kt winds inthe northwestern quadrant. Since there has been no notable change tothe structure of the hurricane since the aircraft was in the systema few hours ago, the initial intensity is being held at 70 kt and isa compromise of those two different peak values measured by theaircraft.

Infrared satellite imagery has been showing some dry air intrusion over the eastern portion of the circulation, causing a break in the eyewall there over the past few hours. There is currently deep convection firing around the remainder of the eyewall, and therefore it is anticipated the dry air will be worked out of the system soon. Very low wind shear and warm waters will support strengthening over the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it nears Bermuda Monday morning. The window for strengthening should continue for another 12-24 h after the cyclone passes Bermuda, and Paulette could become a major hurricane during that time. After 48 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly increase. After 72 h, Paulette is expected to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm, and by 120 h those SSTs will be near 22 degrees C. The NHC forecast shows a weakening trend beginning after 48 h due to the negative environmental factors. By 120 h, the global models suggest that Paulette will have completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The only change to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous advisory was a slight upward adjustment over the first few days due to the increase in strength found by the aircraft this morning. This forecast is in between the LGEM and HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA.

Paulette is now moving northwestward at 12 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue until just after the cyclone passes Bermuda. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn north, then on Monday night northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Later on in the forecast period, a slower eastward motion is indicated once the aforementioned trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one through 48 h and lies in the middle of the latest global and regional track model guidance. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus track guidance. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions should reach Bermuda by this evening, with hurricane force winds arriving there overnight.

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