1. The eye of Paulette will approach Bermuda early Monday andhurricane conditions are expected to begin on the island within thenext few hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into Monday afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and winds will steadily increase this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to each Bermuda during the next 2 to 3 hours and will continue into early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bermuda radar near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Paulette is forecast to continue moving northwestward this morning and then turn northward by this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected this afternoon through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Paulette will pass over Bermuda within the next few hours.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast as Paulette moves closer to Bermuda this morning and continuing into the afternoon. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Winds have steadily increased on Bermuda during the past few hours and will continue to increase this morning. An observing station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported a wind gust to 96 mph (155 km/h). A weather observing station at Pearl Island reported a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h) while a reporting station at the Bermuda Heliport measured a wind gust to 72 mph (116 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the hurricane hunter plane is 973 mb (28.73 inches).

The eye of Paulette is steadily nearing Bermuda. Although it hasappeared slightly ragged at times in IR imagery, radar imagery fromBermuda and the NOAA P3 show that the eye and eyewall of Pauletteare very well defined in all quadrants but the southwest. The NOAAhurricane hunter plane measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt(which adjust to 80 kt at the surface) and SFMR winds of 70 kt.Taking an average of those supports the initial intensity of 75 kt.The minimum pressure measured by the NOAA aircraft in its last passthrough the eye was 976 mb.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for Paulette are very similar to the last advisory. Given its improved structure over the past day or so and its favorable upper-air environment, some additional strengthening appears likely as Paulette approaches Bermuda during the next few hours. Further intensification is possible after the hurricane accelerates northeastward away from Bermuda and Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is expected as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is generally just above the intensity consensus but is within the tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast is quite high and the models are in excellent agreement on Paulette's future for the next few days. The hurricane will approach Bermuda and turn northward tomorrow, then accelerate northeastward through the middle of the week. A slower eastward or even southeastward motion is possible by Friday when a large cut-off mid- to upper-level low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track.