FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Paulette
LOCATED
40 MI N OF BERMUDA
WINDS
95 MPH
PRESSURE
970 MB
MOVING
NNW AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda this morning, with hurricane conditions returning within a couple of hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda this morning, with hurricane conditions returning within a couple of hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are returning to Bermuda from the south and southwest as the southern eyewall passes over the island soon. Hurricane conditions should subside around midmorning, but tropical storm conditions will persist into latemorning and possibly early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are returning to Bermuda from the south and southwest as the southern eyewall passes over the island soon. Hurricane conditions should subside around midmorning, but tropical storm conditions will persist into latemorning and possibly early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the northnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and should continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Hurricaneforce winds are returning as the southern portion of Paulette's eyewall continues to move over the island. Tropicalstormforce winds will continue possibly into the early afternoon across the entire island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on hurricane hunter aircraft and surface observations on Bermuda is 970 mb (28.64 inches).

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the northnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and should continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Hurricaneforce winds are returning as the southern portion of Paulette's eyewall continues to move over the island. Tropicalstormforce winds will continue possibly into the early afternoon across the entire island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on hurricane hunter aircraft and surface observations on Bermuda is 970 mb (28.64 inches).

The large, 35-40-mile-wide eye of Paulette is located over northeastern Bermuda, and nearly the entire island is inside the eye. The last Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant where data from satellites and the Bermuda radar (the radar is still functioning) indicate a large burst of deep convection has developed and persisted in that part of the eyewall, likely bringing down much of those winds to the surface. Using a standard 90-percent adjustment factor yields a surface wind estimate near 80 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. The last reported pressure by the aircraft was 973 mb, which has been confirmed by surface observations from Bermuda.

The initial motion estimate is 345/10 kt. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts remain essentially unchanged since all of the latest NHC guidance appears to be tightly dialed in on Paulette's future. Additional strengthening appears likely after Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is forecast as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is remains just above the intensity consensus, but is within the tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast also remains high, and the latest track guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track. Paulette will move northward away from Bermuda today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by tonight and on Tuesday. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is expected by Friday when a large mid-tropospheric cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track.

The large, 35-40-mile-wide eye of Paulette is located over northeastern Bermuda, and nearly the entire island is inside the eye. The last Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant where data from satellites and the Bermuda radar (the radar is still functioning) indicate a large burst of deep convection has developed and persisted in that part of the eyewall, likely bringing down much of those winds to the surface. Using a standard 90-percent adjustment factor yields a surface wind estimate near 80 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. The last reported pressure by the aircraft was 973 mb, which has been confirmed by surface observations from Bermuda.

The initial motion estimate is 345/10 kt. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts remain essentially unchanged since all of the latest NHC guidance appears to be tightly dialed in on Paulette's future. Additional strengthening appears likely after Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is forecast as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is remains just above the intensity consensus, but is within the tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast also remains high, and the latest track guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track. Paulette will move northward away from Bermuda today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by tonight and on Tuesday. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is expected by Friday when a large mid-tropospheric cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track.

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