1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermudatoday, however, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe east coast of the United States. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda in the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should persist into the mid afternoon hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 64.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion should continue into this afternoon. A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the eastnortheast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night through Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening through Tuesday night is likely as Paultette acclerates northeastward to eastnortheastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 80 mph (130 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph (170 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observed apeak 700 mb flight-level wind of 93 kt and a SFMR wind of 80 kt 25miles to the northeast of the center of the 35 mile wide eye. The central pressure, also reported by the aircraft, has fallen to 970mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the next 24 hours. At the 48 hour forecast period, weakening will commence as the cyclone becomes involved with a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the Canadian Maritimes. Paulette should begin losing its tropical characteristics toward the end of the week. The peak intensity is increased a little at the 24 hour period to agree with the HCCA and IVCN intensity multi-models and follows these aids through the remaining portion of the forecast period.The initial motion estimate is 355/12 kt. Paulette will begin accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning then turn east-northeastward with a further increased in forward motion early Wednesday morning. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond the 36 hour period and basically lies down the middle of the tightly clustered deterministic and regional model guidance.