There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect Bermuda and portions of the east coast of the United States into Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the eastnortheast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion with a further increase in speed is expected through Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the southsoutheast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone undergoes extratropical transition and moves over much cooler water. Paulette should complete its transition to an extratropical cyclone Thursday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

Another fortuitous AMSR2 microwave pass over the cyclone showed the outer concentric ring open over the south semicircle and a more noticeable vertical tilt. Furthermore, the cloud tops associated with the deep convection in the north quadrant have warmed during the past several hours. Consequently, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt and is in best agreement with the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

Paulette continues to lose its tropical characteristics as it mingles with the rapidly approaching baroclinic zone from the northwest. In fact, earlier successive METOP A and B scatterometer passes on Paulette revealed that the northwest quadrant 34-kt wind radii had nearly doubled in size due to the aforementioned invading frontal zone moving out of the Canadian Maritimes. The sea surface temperatures quickly decrease to less than 20C within 24 hours as Paulette accelerates east-northeastward. As a result, the cyclone should weaken rather quickly and complete its extratropical transition on Thursday, as indicated in the global models and the statistical-dynamical guidance.

Paulette is moving east-northeastward, or 060/26 kt, and this motion should continue with a further increase in forward speed through Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn south-southeastward to southward as it moves within the western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on the various consensus guidance.

The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1110 UTC and 1424 UTC scatterometer pa