FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Paulette
LOCATED
415 MI S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
WINDS
100 MPH
PRESSURE
966 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 28 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020
PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 52.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the eastnortheast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the southsoutheast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday night.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 52.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the eastnortheast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the southsoutheast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday night.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

tte is gradually losing tropical characteristics. Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main area of deep convection and that the hurricane is starting to get tangled up with a nearby baroclinic zone. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum winds in the 75-80 kt range in the southwestern quadrant. It is quite impressive to see such high values from that instrument given that ASCAT usually can't resolve the maximum winds in hurricanes. The initial intensity is therefore held at 85 kt. Since Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, weakening is expected. Paulette is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone in about 24 hours when it will likely merge with the nearby front and move over SSTs of about 20 C. There is some chance that Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move back over warmer waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity consensus models and the GFS. The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 24 kt. A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that, Post-tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are 52 feet. Swells from the hurricane have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.

tte is gradually losing tropical characteristics. Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main area of deep convection and that the hurricane is starting to get tangled up with a nearby baroclinic zone. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum winds in the 75-80 kt range in the southwestern quadrant. It is quite impressive to see such high values from that instrument given that ASCAT usually can't resolve the maximum winds in hurricanes. The initial intensity is therefore held at 85 kt. Since Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, weakening is expected. Paulette is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone in about 24 hours when it will likely merge with the nearby front and move over SSTs of about 20 C. There is some chance that Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move back over warmer waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity consensus models and the GFS. The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 24 kt. A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that, Post-tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are 52 feet. Swells from the hurricane have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.

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